Next generation (2025, 2026+) BEVs will be the tipping point for the auto industry.
When BEVs have 500 mile+ per charge capacity, charging infrastructure becomes abundant, and 350kW+ charging is ubiquitous (<15 min recharges), there will no longer be any value proposition for ICEs whatsoever (outside of hobbyists).
Amazing how fast the change is happening.
Agree or disagree?
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The current gen is already more than enough for 90% of people. In Europe even the infrastructure is already fine in most places. Problem here is for now that the cars are still expensive and it will take time for them to trickle down via company leasing to the used car market. Most people here don’t buy new cars.
Charging infrastructure saturation will be the focus before affordable 400+ mile ranges
From everything I’ve read lately Auto manufacturers are backing off on EV production.
My brother refuses to get an EV because he feels range anxiety about taking a road trip once a year. This is the level of stupidity people are operating under.
The tipping point has already happened. BEVs are at 25% of new sales in China, 15% in Europe, 12% globally and the rate of growth year-to-year is significant.
Also 25% in the world’s 4th largest economy, California :)
Netherlands already introduces road tax for EVs. Since the tax % based on weight, the payment will be higher than for a similar ICE cars. Other countries will follow. This will slow down the EV adoption.
300 miles is fine for the vast majority. Next is about charging speeds and charger availability.
This
Some new ICE cars don’t even reliably get 300 miles. My partners new Honda Civic when filled to full only reads 265 on particularly bad stop-and-go traffic days. Even though it supposedly gets up to 350 in the city, or 400 on the highway.
Having driven from Florida to Ohio in it, it definitely isn’t 400 between fill ups, maybe if we’re only doing 60mph, but considering the speed limit is 70 and everyone moves close to 80+, we didn’t see that. 300 was probably closer to what we saw, though we were getting a respectable 35+ mpg on the way up as a whole.
Your EV will charge faster if 300 miles of range falls within 20-80% state of charge
Yeah and that means 500 miles 100% to 0%.
Honestly 250 is fine if the charging infrastructure gets built up.
But prices will have to come down. EVs are cheaper to build but we’re paying for the giant batteries and R&D. At some point the cost profile will be so much better than iCE cars that the market will flip itself.
Agreed, charging speed and availability is a much bigger deal. 300-400 miles will be fine for “fully price” and lower end luxury cars, 200-250 miles will be fine for budget cars. We might see a small market for 400-600 mile cars in certain luxury segments (there are people who buy SUVs with a 500 mile range gas tank and are adamant they need it), but those will be fairly niche because they will be expensive and the people who want them will have to be willing to pay for them.
Normalizing 250-350kw charging with a good charging curve that lets it stay in that high speed band for longer will be the real game changer.
Just having 500 mile range EVs available is the tipping point. Most people don’t need and won’t get that but seeding the idea into the heads of the general populace is the key here.
It’s just like how I think we need big, tall signs over every fast charging location. My nav is better than any sign for finding a charger, sure. But those signs aren’t for me: they’re for the millions out there who still say “I don’t see any chargers around here”.
We don’t need 500 mile range EVs so that everybody can have 500 mile range EVs. We need 500 mile range EVs to prove to everybody that they can have an EV.
Charging infrastructure is not ready for that. Probably better to increase range for the cars so even if charging isn’t that convenient, it only happens once every month or something.
A true 300, in real life situation, would be fine . I get about 250 miles in my “330 mile” Model Y.
Exactly. The range is already there. I think price is the issue…for now. Oh and charging locations for road trips…for now. Oh and jelly ice owners keying EVs…for now
Yup… upvoted. Range is moot because most people can’t sit still for 5-6 hours at a stretch… or shouldn’t. Current EV’s with 300 mile range are more than good enough and frankly I’ve not had a problem with my ~220 mile Polestar 2 even despite multiple cross-country trips (600 miles or thereabouts).
The charging infrastructure needs to be a LOT better and a lot more reliable. The compute in most of our cars or on our phones is more than enough to properly plan a route but it does assume the charger is working or working at a decent speed. My last trip I avoided Electrify America like the plague despite still having free charging from them because every EA charger I’ve been to in the last 6 months seems to max out at 80kw when I had previously seen 155kw consistently on those exact same chargers.
Charging speed is also a bit of an issue with the current crop of EV’s, but not nearly as bad as people think. I took to taking shorter spans between stops at lower SoC on a recent trip too and when I was able to keep my charging about 150kw it made my trip slightly shorter than what I had been doing previously. But there are still too many massive “charging deserts” in the US (try driving from Michigan down to Indianapolis and see how much fun it can be with zero fast charging between the Ohio/Indiana/Michigan border and Indianapolis)
500 mile range is nothing short of silly and is completely arbitrary.
Average driving in US is 37miles/day. Most people charge each evening after that 37 mile run.
I work in home improvement sales and drive 150-250 miles a day (occasionally more). I have a Mach-E premium awd with the extended range battery. I charge to 100% every night (which I know is frowned upon), and my next EV I’ll be looking for something with 400+ miles of range, as occasionally I’m out of juice before the day is done.
nothing short of silly and is completely arbitrary.
Have you seen what we buy in the USA? You’ve just defined the most popular type of vehicle here, “silly & completely arbitrary”. Look at the size & expense of our pickup trucks.
Seriously, though, people will make their decision on a $50k+ vehicle on the road trips they take less than 4 times a year. If an EV doesn’t handle those longer trips with the same ease as gasoline, they’re going to get held back.
It’s absurd and excessive with current tech. That like nearly doubling the capacity of many current EVs like the Bolt. Very few people need that much range. People need like 300 miles IMO to get over range anxiety and that’s still excessive for the vast majority of driving they will actually do. We need more affordable EVs with that sort of range, not expensive 500 mile range EVs.
For everyday driving 2-400km range is good enough for me. And 90% of the EV drivers I know is okay with the current state… Of course progress is good I’m not disagreeing on that. But here electric installations is good and it is no problem getting a home charger.
For the last 10% and myself when I need to go longer trips and cross country because of work. I don’t need 1000km range, I would be okay with faster charging and shorter range between charges(mainly because of queue in vacation season).
If every charger would supply 800volt DC I think xpeng is pretty close to winning this atm… for now.
500+ mile range isn’t going to be the goal for a very long time (likely never a goal, but maybe a product of advancing tech in the future).
Drivers vastly over estimate the amount of range that they actually need. The percentage people who drive passenger vehicles 500 miles per day is nearly 0.
200-300mi range vehicles will continue to dominate the market, with the focus being on reducing material costs and increasing charging time (while also improving the fast charging infrastructure).
CATL is claiming their Gen 2 sodium ion battery will be $44/kWh and 200wh/kg. That is LFP lithium territory. Moderate to low horsepower economy cars will flood the market. There are a LOT of people who don’t give 2 shits about speed. They just want a reliable daily driver.
And the batteries operate from -20 to +60C. That reduces the thermal management needs drastically (cheaper and lighter) and they are really safe (less fire protection needed).
The 3500 cycle counts should put them into the 20 year durability range.
Cheap cars, even if they aren’t super fast will put serious downwards economic pressures on the rest of the cars sold. It used to be that driving a cheap car was miserable. Buzzy and loud. Now even a cheap EV is nice
Adoption of new technology can sometimes play out like this.
Initial surge of early adopters who will take a risk on new technology.
Then a cooling off until prices are adjusted to encourage the next wave of buyers.
Then mass marketing to entice the rest.
Critical mass will happen and then it will become the norm.
We are probably heading into the second phase now and that’s when manufacturers and policy makers can really nudge this forward. Cost and risk (resale, range anxiety, infrastructure, longevity - whether justified or not) will need to be addressed now.
It’s possible Norway (the usual example) has accelerated this sequence.
The key point being that a slowdown after the first phase is normal but is often reported as problem or indication of failure etc.
Easily accessible fast charging will be the tipping point. Whether you have 300 mile range or 600 mile range won’t matter.
The used vehicle market will be the tipping point
The used car market is just an unavoidable consequence of what was bought in the new car market.
The new car market decides which way thing will go. Not the used car market.
Until charging infrastructure saturates much more than where it is today, I need a 250+ mile range EV. I make fairly regular trips of 100+ miles each way, and I’d have to go out of my way to find a working fast charger, although the future adoption of NACS makes that less of an issue for the future.
I mean, even the much-maligned BZ4X and its range would be plenty sufficient if I knew there would be available working fast chargers every time I drive 100+ miles.
That said, for my daily use, the current crop of EVs is plenty. I have just a few reasons I’m waiting: the aformentioned lack of chargers, lack of space in my garage currently for a L2 charger setup, and that I’m still paying on my current HV. Those reasons are all going to go away in a few years and then I’m jumping on my first EV.
Having a single charging standard in North America will be the tipping point. Charging speed is more important than range.
Yeah, they really ought to work harder on that. Can’t the government just come in and pick CCS and tell Tesla to get in line?
No, I haven’t seen any EV news in the last 6 months. Why do you ask?