- cross-posted to:
- ukraine@sopuli.xyz
- cross-posted to:
- ukraine@sopuli.xyz
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I really hope Russia is collapsing soon so Ukraians can have actual peace.
And the world. Fuckers have infected everything
Agreed. I want the killing to stop and Russia to stop it’s conquest.
Don’t worry, the US will probably bail Russia out to keep that from happening
lets bankrupt them next. they obviously have too much power and dont know how to be responsible with it.
Trump is already hard at work on his magnum opus bankruptcy.
Removed by mod
He will restart lend lease to Russia.
It’s ok, they’ll just buy them from the US. That’s what allies do.
Elsewhere on Lemmy today;
Germany warns Russia may be preparing attack on NATO
Both of these cannot be true.
The idea is that after some kind of cease fire, russia will churn out stuff for 3-4-5 years (so mebbe 1.000 tanks?) and then not go full frontal against NATO but say take a bite out of Lithuania, just to see what the response will be.
Like they have been doing since forever (Chechnya, Moldavia, Georgia, Ukraine and so on).
Correct. The issue with Ukraine though is they fought back and didn’t give any land to Russia. Now Putin needs to save face and how many people put through the meat grinder to do that is irrelevant.
Irrelevant to Putin. It matters a lot to Europe and Ukraine.
Everything written about this conflict (by anyone) is propaganda. The enemy is a powerful and maximally oppressive force we all need to fear, but is also so weak it’s losing equipment fast and its final defeat is only a matter of time.
I was told that russia was bankrupt and the war would be over in 3 months. And then when that wagner guy revolted, it was the final nail in the coffin
Yet here we are and the war is still on.
It’s not our fault you have been badly informed.
Everyone knows the russian economy is on the ropes for example, but when will it crack? No one knows.
when that wagner guy revolted, it was the final nail in the coffin
What was crazy during the Wagner Revolt was the intransigence of the Ukraine line.
You’d think that would be the moment for a full press by Ukraine troops over a lightly defended border. But no… they just stayed put and watched Prigovian flounder.
They absolutely can.
Russia has thousands of men willing to fight in horrendous conditions.
A few thousand soldiers that are very well equipped might lose to 10x as many badly equipped enemies.
I think they would lose, but they might not think so.
I still can’t believe how fucking shameless their regime is with those “prizes”. Like… holy fuck.
It’s about search engine squatting, if you now search “Russia meatgrinder” you get that, instead of articles about losing the war.
Lmfao this is hilariously logical and I bet it’s actually the reason
Russia has thousands of men willing to fight in horrendous conditions.
They’ve got hundreds of thousands of conscripts who are largely dug in along an enormous front, along the four eastern most seized Oblasts in Ukraine.
Any attack they would make into a NATO state would be an artillery bombardment intended to deny Ukrainians resupply, not a ground invasion to secure territory. Particularly not when they have poor control over their own borders and a nasty instance of counter-insurgence popping up in and around their major cities.
Both things can be true because Germany is talking about risks in the upcoming 5 to 10 years, while this issue is relevant today.
Russia is still ramping up military production on a wartime economy, to be used after the Ukrainians stop fighting back. Also their production focuses on their modern options for land and air. I don’t know what their naval production is doing.
Russia wouldn’t exactly not try, but they have a very 19th century realpolitik take everything and exploit the fuck out of it approach. I would have said that’s silly. now, not so sure it isn’t working
We have to keep in mind that Europe needs to justify austerity for the citizens and rearmament for their militaries. I have no evidence of this, but I think it’s an entierly sensible read that the warning from Germany is an overstatement with that intent in mind.
They can flood the Baltics with drones and cause plenty of chaos and destruction.
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We’re on the verge of total victory
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The enemy is prepared to launch its biggest attack yet
Is the same war time propaganda we’ve been served up for decades. Iraq/Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, Kosovo, Vietnam, Korea…
The news coverage is totally divorced from what is happening on the ground. There’s even a term for it.
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Have you never worked in an organization?
You can have as many preparation meetings as you want and still be on your ass when the day of judgement comes.
“No plan survives first contact” - Helmuth
There are ways Russia can attack that doesn’t include massive tank charges
Russia can’t even take over Ukraine, let alone half of NATO to even make it into Germany. I personally think this is just fearmongering on the side of our elected officials so the military industrial complex can make a few more bucks with money from the state.
Not with tanks. Probably with hypersonic nukes instead.
They can be true. They might be low on current stockpile, but what is building up is production capacity. Preparing to attack doesn’t mean immediately attacking, what most have concern is that once Russia’s war against Ukraine cools down, Russia will spend the next 4-10 years building up towards potentially attacking NATO nations.
Yes, years down the line doesn’t sound as alarming to the layman, but it is critical for that eventuality to be recognized and prepared for, nations and industry move slowly, and they need to prepare to fight another long drawn out war.
Taking over a Baltic state is feasible. NATO might react by sending helmets and prayers.
Artikel 42 EU treaty. All members of the EU have to fight with their full capacity. This will escalate quickly.
There are already EU troops in the Baltics, just to remind the Russans of it.
You should read Article 42.
“obligation of aid and assistance by all the means in their power”. Which is far above what being in NATO requires states to do. Which just btw also covers Greenland. Only ones off the hook are Ireland and Austria due to being neutral, the treaty still covers them though.
One of the traits of fascism by Umberto Eco, enemy is in the same time weak and strong.
Right, so in your version of this world, who is the fascist? Germany?
Who said the attack would be with conventional armed forces?
German security officials believe the Kremlin is laying the groundwork for a potential large-scale conventional war with NATO by the end of the decade, according to multiple reports cited by European Pravda and Bild.
https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/germany-warns-russia-may-be-preparing-attack-on-nato/
It’s seriously astonishing that they managed to wear though the entire massive Soviet stockpile.
Covert Cobal has great tank and apv counting vids, documenting the ever worsening condition of the vehicles remaining. https://youtube.com/@covertcabal
Yes. Back when analysts used to talk about a war with Russia pre-2022, something you heard pretty often was “they’re not as advanced, but they have so much stockpiled armour”.
This is like America running out of guns or Canada running out of syrup.
I think not even the CIA predicted the effectiveness of drones and javelins against old armor. Without modern defenses, they are just sitting (or slowly moving) ducks. Add to this the corruption in the military, causing lack of maintenance and missing parts, plus the gaps in skills and training of their soldiers.
We are maybe 1-2 years away from the Russian military collapsing, if it weren’t for the orange clown.
Even modern armor without active countermeasures like Trophy seem like they could be just as vulnerable to drones. Especially to top attacks.
I said 15 months or less to hyperinflation somewhere yesterday. In that case, they could theoretically start conscription and grind Ukraine down that way, or start selling big ticket things like territory in exchange for help, but political capacity to enforce that is a serious question.
The stockpile was built in the 50s, 60s and 70a though. The vast bulk of it is 50-70 years old. Post soviet Russia didn’t have the money, and prior to that the stockpile was good.
Prior to Ukraine the stockpile was good. Then it started disappearing.
I seem to remember they were using actual WW2 tanks?
Yup. Not because they were out of more modern tanks yet at that point, but because the more modern tanks took longer to refurbish. But now they really are scraping the bottom of the barrel.
Unfortunately I think this also has to do with the changing tech around war. Drones are the new hotness and it is a very good counter to tanks warfare.
Drones don’t hold ground, soldiers do. Soldiers that have tanks are going to be more effective than those without them.
I think you hit the nail on the head. Even without drones, they are awful I’m so much of modern warfare. If you’ve watched any footage out of Gaza you’ll see a dude pop up out of tunnel and just completely disable a tank without them ever seeing him. Tanks are quickly going the way of the cannon. In much the same way.
That’s always been true of city warfare though. Tanks are not designed for that.
Very true. I think the tank, much like the cannon, will still have its own niche use case but isn’t the silver bullet so many armies saw it as. Happens a lot I think
It never was a silver bullet. They have always been best in open terrain and worst in terrain that allows infantry to hide everywhere.
where’s that super next-next-gen Russian Armata thing? is that a ghost tank?
T14 was officially canceled last year citing cost efficiency.
lol it failed
It very much did. From the looks of it, it would’ve been “ok”, except a notoriously unreliable drivetrain, and electronics that are almost on par with the rest of the world. However, it couldn’t be built without western components, it was ridiculously expensive, couldn’t be built at a high enough rate, and not combat proven.
As easy as it is to make fun of russian tanks these days, it does make a lot more sense to focus on T-90 or the likes instead. Hell, t-72m is also a reasonable choice given the circumstances.
they should have tried putting all those electronics on a cybertruck. i love to see rich people bullshit AND war profiteering bullshit catch fire
In all fairness tanks seem to be an outdated tool in 2025’s modern warfare and everyone’s refocusing on drones.
So let’s have a ceasefire eh? /s
Finally the reality is catching up with russia.
Slava Ukraine!
Yeah, the fact that Putin is not really pushing for a ceasefire means that they are not as out-of-stock as the headline suggests…
They are already using way less tanks & armored vehicles today. They will never really “run out” but just have a smaller stockpile to draw from, which seems to be the case.
Also, who knows what kind of information putin gets, look at donald and the information he gets and he’s not even killing everyone not doing their job correctly.
Change comes gradually and then suddenly. Lots of signs point to a collapse (stockpiles, economy, the blocked frontlines, …, and donkeys), some people have put it to around mid 2025-end 2025 for quite some time now.
Interesting times.
According to the researchers, even though there are still about 4,700 tanks in storage, most of them will be difficult to restore due to their poor technical condition.
This is Russia though - “poor technical condition” is “ready for service.”
Covert Cobal has been classifying in mainly 4 categories. Abysmal is the lowest one, and are often missing such minor accessories as the turet, tracks, engines, and wheels. Not to mention having sat outdoors for upwards of 50 years. Those conditions are mostly what they’re down to. It might allow for slightly higher throughout on production to start on these rusted husks rather than from raw steel, but it’d definitely be harder and more expensive to make these usable than to build a new tank from scratch.
Devils advocate, but given the way they’ve been building metal sheds around the prior tanks and almost completely negating the main gun, a missing turret might just be a weatherproofing issue for the
OrksRussians.It’s not like a main gun helps you survive a mobility kill from the umpteenth TM-62 in the dirt that got replanted after the last assault failed.
Nah. In those photos, where there’s one or two tanks left but all the others have gone… those are immovable tanks. Couldn’t even get them to the service bay. Why else would that one tank have been left behind?
the industry is not covering combat losses
Since it’s not clear from the headline, that’s the restoration industry. We’re not even talking about the production of new tanks (which was never that impressive at any point in the full-scale war).
Edit It looks like Ukraine has began serious production of truck mounted mobile 155mm artillery systems, something the US doesn’t take seriously here because it can lean on an assumed air superiority to deliver overwhelming force, something Ukraine can’t do . This coupled with a depletion of Russian tanks might actually be decisive here since the more Ukraine can field mobile, extreme lethality cannon artillery the more necessary it becomes for Russia to have main battle tanks with significant armor and extreme survivability under the hellish conditions of metal shards hurtling at terrible speeds in all directions from exploding ordnance…
The problem with artillery smaller than this is that it doesn’t actually pose an existential threat to very highly armored/entrenched targets and the range is that much more limited. Again, if the U.S. had taken arming Ukraine seriously, they would have made sure that the Ukranian military had a very deep and resilient supply of mobile artillery pieces that could serve in place of the role U.S. airpower plays (or U.S. forces assume air power will play at least). As long as Ukranian infantry has access to effective, shoulder launched anti-tank weapons this could tip the balance of the war significantly.
longer answer
I hope this hits Russia hard, but I wonder how much Russia needs tanks at this stage of the war vs a breadth and depth of infantry and artillery reserves.
Main battle tanks are for punching through enemy defenses and making a run on enclosing enemy forces/enemy territory.
Once you capture that territory tanks are still very much useful, especially because of their mobility and ability to reposition quickly, but they aren’t necessary in the same way that you need some kind of tank or something behaving like a tank in the maneuver portion of the war. Even if Ukraine counterattacks with main battle tanks, the most effective counters in that case are artillery, entrenched infantry, and mechanized infantry with effective AT that can respond and reposition to slow down armored columns attempting to break through their front lines. Don’t get me wrong, tanks would absolutely decisively help too, but if I had to choose between depriving Russia of artillery and depriving Russia of tanks, I would choose artillery. I mean… obviously but especially at this stage of the war.
Who knows though, I hope Ukraine can get a steady supply of main battle tanks from someone (do they currently?), if Russia can’t field main battle tanks even if it doesn’t immediately affect the strategic balance of the war, the immediate psychological impact and tactical efficiency of tanks chewing through emplaced machine gun nests and enemy positions will be huge. No matter where you are on the battlefield you know that if Ukranians show up with an actual main battle tank, you are fucked as a Russian unless you have a whole lot of artillery/air support at the ready (which they do sometimes).
A single tank if used with an effective screen of infantry can delete entire columns of armored personnel carriers and armored fighting vehicles, I hope Russia suffers severely from a lack of tanks to directly counter this.
The problem though is that the Ukranians need much more artillery or extensive & resilient close air support for their tanks to be anything other than juicey targets for Russians unless they are always kept in the rear and deployed as very limited motorized artillery pieces. To the Ukranians an abrams mbt is effectively just a shittier paladin in the current status quo.
…Add the persistent presence of self propelled 155mm artillery backing Ukranian infantry and armor though and the current status quo of fiddly uav flying bombs and horrific close quarters fighting will simplify for the Russians to “get in a trench or heavily armored vehicle or die”. This will hopefully create a situation where tanks are much more necessary for Russia.
Modern war is like rock paper scissors, tanks are the rock, infantry are the paper and artillery is the anvil dropped on the rock paper scissors game…
155mm, and the U.S. has about 1500 of its M109 self propelled guns in service.
for some reason I originally had it in my head the Paladin wasn’t as large as an artillery piece, idk why, I guess because it is tracked and it was developed so many decades before this current wave of self propelled guns were developed.
Still, my point stands though, if the U.S. was serious about arming Ukraine from the beginning, they would have focused on supplying Ukraine with self propelled guns and lots of artillery. It feels like the effort to help Ukraine defend itself was more an effort to help stall the war and keep Russia from decisively winning for as long as possible…
Yet we must triple up military budget in case they decide to invade whole europe on empty tanks…
Yes because Russia will build more tanks and other equipment in the next decade. Not a problem if Europe builds up too. But that will be a problem if Europe does nothing.
If Russia were an immediate threat, Europe would have no choice but to give Trump whatever he wants so the US will protect Europe. But with Russian forces being decimated by this war, Europe has the opportunity to build it’s own arms industry to be able to produce it’s own weapons to be able to counter Russia in a decade’s time.
Europe does nothing.
European countries combined are already spending more money on war than russia. European countries have a big arms industry already and they export weapons all over the world, including to countries ruled by dictatorships like saudi arabia. They even sold weapons to russia in the past years that are being used in the ukraine war.
You are misinformed.
European countries combined do indeed spend more money on war than russia. What the article you posted claim is that adjusted to their buying power russia spend the equivalent of more billions. Even if we compare these adjusted spending europe and russia are pretty much there.
I’m going to go with what European military leaders are saying, out loud and in public. God knows what those leaders really know and talk about.
I’m guessing you’re European? Well, you’ve had 80 years of mostly peace and prosperity. Timed to get armed, personally. (Yes my fellow Americans, Europeans can acquire guns without too much hassle. Yes, real guns. Gun ownership just isn’t a major part of their culture like it is over here, and their culture isn’t as diseased as ours regarding weapons.)
If you’re allergic to guns, consider these two scenarios:
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Hostile foreign power invades America.
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Hostile foreign power invades Europe.
In which case do you expect the invader to suffer the most? Which case do you consider more likely?
I’m guessing you’re European? Well, you’ve had 80 years of mostly peace and prosperity.
I’m guessing you are american because you sound like you don’t know much history
You are ignoring the elephant in the room, which is that a rising sense of militarism quickly feeds into a decay of your society, if you make an incredible amount of guns somebody is going to use them, that is how these things work.
I am not saying Europe shouldn’t absolutely take being able to militarily counter Russia seriously, as they should any regional threat, but what is needed isn’t necessarily to reshape Europe into a hypermilitarized environment, especially in the area of police and the militarization of police, what Europe needs is to make sure it has effective counters to a mass, mechanized land war. What conservative war hawks in Europe will advocate for is a militarization of police and of society, that is not what is needed. You need the right military assets to make a ground war incredibly costly for the Russians.
One of the most effective counters, and a decisive element of the war in Ukranian has been HIMARs, long range missiles launched from trucks and armor capable of striking mobile Russian SAM assets and other high value targets from extremely far away. These make maneuvering a large concentrated armored force much much much more costly and dangerous for an invader.
…but ultimately this all devolves into a sense of militarism that undermines the original reason for making all the guns in the first place, it is just a matter of how far you can push it in your society before that cancer becomes terminal… see the U.S. as a prime example…
Even your comment advocating for reasonable spending gets downvoted. People are mad on war propaganda.
This is how quickly the cancer of militarism spreads and why war is the favorite tool of the ruling class rich, time immemorial, to put off making concessions to society so that the average person can live a somewhat decent life.
Modern professional militaries don’t need hundreds of thousands of troops, you don’t need to mainline jingoism and nationalism straight into your fucking veins to defend your country from Russia, just make sure your military has the right capabilities to make a Russian land invasion as absolutely costly as possible.
What conservative warhawks will hear though is “tear our society apart and pre-emptively destroy everything we hold dear because of the threat of an enemy invader, and then in that militarism invite in corruption from Russian aligned assets anyways that exploit the opening created by the deafening roar of righteousness of the military industrial complex”.
Resist them with everything you have.
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I think at this point the unspoken truth is that we must have a military that needs to be a deterrent to the US as well.
US has thousand military facilities all over europe, you could simply lower the gap by kicking them out. Making such claim a year ago would have get you labeled as a russian troll.
Everyone upvoting your comment should take half of the money in his wallet and donate them to the government because that’s how you match US trillion dollar budget.
I don’t know what to think anymore. I feel like every week for the last 4 years it’s been “China’s economy is going collapse any day now” and “Russia is losing so many people and resources in this war. They might as well give all of Russia to Ukraine”
I don’t take any news written in English with any seriousness for these two countries.
Also, pretty sure modern warfare has learned heavily that tanks are completely obsolete against drones. Or even less modern warfare tells us how useless they are in cities against gorilla fighters.
Russia has been coasting on old Soviet stock for a while. Most of their modern t-90s and t-14s have been exploded. They’ve been sending mothballs tanks and apcs to the front for years now. Last year a good deal of frontline troops were using unarmored Chinese golf carts to move around. They never had the manufacturing capability to keep modernized armor at the front, and it is costing russian lives
And yet somehow they will attack nato until 2030, according to the news…
Just like they would never attack Ukraine…
Is it that hard to understand? They are barely producing enough to keep up the war in Ukraine, but much compared to some European countries. When the war “ends” end they continue with their war economy for a few years, they are still producing a lot more than the European countries. Russia can continue with their strategy, but some Nato states need to change theirs.
You don’t understand the Russian psyche.
They believe they won’t be attacking alone, they think the US will at least help, this is their last chance to finally repay Europe for the centuries of humiliation caused by checks notes leaving them to wallow in their own filth.
