The idea is that after some kind of cease fire, russia will churn out stuff for 3-4-5 years (so mebbe 1.000 tanks?) and then not go full frontal against NATO but say take a bite out of Lithuania, just to see what the response will be.
Like they have been doing since forever (Chechnya, Moldavia, Georgia, Ukraine and so on).
Correct. The issue with Ukraine though is they fought back and didn’t give any land to Russia. Now Putin needs to save face and how many people put through the meat grinder to do that is irrelevant.
Everything written about this conflict (by anyone) is propaganda. The enemy is a powerful and maximally oppressive force we all need to fear, but is also so weak it’s losing equipment fast and its final defeat is only a matter of time.
when that wagner guy revolted, it was the final nail in the coffin
What was crazy during the Wagner Revolt was the intransigence of the Ukraine line.
You’d think that would be the moment for a full press by Ukraine troops over a lightly defended border. But no… they just stayed put and watched Prigovian flounder.
Russia has thousands of men willing to fight in horrendous conditions.
They’ve got hundreds of thousands of conscripts who are largely dug in along an enormous front, along the four eastern most seized Oblasts in Ukraine.
Any attack they would make into a NATO state would be an artillery bombardment intended to deny Ukrainians resupply, not a ground invasion to secure territory. Particularly not when they have poor control over their own borders and a nasty instance of counter-insurgence popping up in and around their major cities.
Russia is still ramping up military production on a wartime economy, to be used after the Ukrainians stop fighting back.
Also their production focuses on their modern options for land and air. I don’t know what their naval production is doing.
Russia wouldn’t exactly not try, but they have a very 19th century realpolitik take everything and exploit the fuck out of it approach. I would have said that’s silly. now, not so sure it isn’t working
We have to keep in mind that Europe needs to justify austerity for the citizens and rearmament for their militaries. I have no evidence of this, but I think it’s an entierly sensible read that the warning from Germany is an overstatement with that intent in mind.
They can be true. They might be low on current stockpile, but what is building up is production capacity. Preparing to attack doesn’t mean immediately attacking, what most have concern is that once Russia’s war against Ukraine cools down, Russia will spend the next 4-10 years building up towards potentially attacking NATO nations.
Yes, years down the line doesn’t sound as alarming to the layman, but it is critical for that eventuality to be recognized and prepared for, nations and industry move slowly, and they need to prepare to fight another long drawn out war.
Russia can’t even take over Ukraine, let alone half of NATO to even make it into Germany. I personally think this is just fearmongering on the side of our elected officials so the military industrial complex can make a few more bucks with money from the state.
“obligation of aid and assistance by all the means in their power”. Which is far above what being in NATO requires states to do. Which just btw also covers Greenland. Only ones off the hook are Ireland and Austria due to being neutral, the treaty still covers them though.
German security officials believe the Kremlin is laying the groundwork for a potential large-scale conventional war with NATO by the end of the decade, according to multiple reports cited by European Pravda and Bild.
Elsewhere on Lemmy today;
Both of these cannot be true.
The idea is that after some kind of cease fire, russia will churn out stuff for 3-4-5 years (so mebbe 1.000 tanks?) and then not go full frontal against NATO but say take a bite out of Lithuania, just to see what the response will be.
Like they have been doing since forever (Chechnya, Moldavia, Georgia, Ukraine and so on).
Correct. The issue with Ukraine though is they fought back and didn’t give any land to Russia. Now Putin needs to save face and how many people put through the meat grinder to do that is irrelevant.
Irrelevant to Putin. It matters a lot to Europe and Ukraine.
Everything written about this conflict (by anyone) is propaganda. The enemy is a powerful and maximally oppressive force we all need to fear, but is also so weak it’s losing equipment fast and its final defeat is only a matter of time.
I was told that russia was bankrupt and the war would be over in 3 months. And then when that wagner guy revolted, it was the final nail in the coffin
Yet here we are and the war is still on.
It’s not our fault you have been badly informed.
Everyone knows the russian economy is on the ropes for example, but when will it crack? No one knows.
What was crazy during the Wagner Revolt was the intransigence of the Ukraine line.
You’d think that would be the moment for a full press by Ukraine troops over a lightly defended border. But no… they just stayed put and watched Prigovian flounder.
Both things can be true because Germany is talking about risks in the upcoming 5 to 10 years, while this issue is relevant today.
They absolutely can.
Russia has thousands of men willing to fight in horrendous conditions.
A few thousand soldiers that are very well equipped might lose to 10x as many badly equipped enemies.
I think they would lose, but they might not think so.
I still can’t believe how fucking shameless their regime is with those “prizes”. Like… holy fuck.
It’s about search engine squatting, if you now search “Russia meatgrinder” you get that, instead of articles about losing the war.
Lmfao this is hilariously logical and I bet it’s actually the reason
They’ve got hundreds of thousands of conscripts who are largely dug in along an enormous front, along the four eastern most seized Oblasts in Ukraine.
Any attack they would make into a NATO state would be an artillery bombardment intended to deny Ukrainians resupply, not a ground invasion to secure territory. Particularly not when they have poor control over their own borders and a nasty instance of counter-insurgence popping up in and around their major cities.
Russia is still ramping up military production on a wartime economy, to be used after the Ukrainians stop fighting back. Also their production focuses on their modern options for land and air. I don’t know what their naval production is doing.
Russia wouldn’t exactly not try, but they have a very 19th century realpolitik take everything and exploit the fuck out of it approach. I would have said that’s silly. now, not so sure it isn’t working
We have to keep in mind that Europe needs to justify austerity for the citizens and rearmament for their militaries. I have no evidence of this, but I think it’s an entierly sensible read that the warning from Germany is an overstatement with that intent in mind.
We’re on the verge of total victory
The enemy is prepared to launch its biggest attack yet
Is the same war time propaganda we’ve been served up for decades. Iraq/Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, Kosovo, Vietnam, Korea…
The news coverage is totally divorced from what is happening on the ground. There’s even a term for it.
Credibility Gap
There are ways Russia can attack that doesn’t include massive tank charges
They can flood the Baltics with drones and cause plenty of chaos and destruction.
Have you never worked in an organization?
You can have as many preparation meetings as you want and still be on your ass when the day of judgement comes.
“No plan survives first contact” - Helmuth
They can be true. They might be low on current stockpile, but what is building up is production capacity. Preparing to attack doesn’t mean immediately attacking, what most have concern is that once Russia’s war against Ukraine cools down, Russia will spend the next 4-10 years building up towards potentially attacking NATO nations.
Yes, years down the line doesn’t sound as alarming to the layman, but it is critical for that eventuality to be recognized and prepared for, nations and industry move slowly, and they need to prepare to fight another long drawn out war.
Russia can’t even take over Ukraine, let alone half of NATO to even make it into Germany. I personally think this is just fearmongering on the side of our elected officials so the military industrial complex can make a few more bucks with money from the state.
Not with tanks. Probably with hypersonic nukes instead.
Taking over a Baltic state is feasible. NATO might react by sending helmets and prayers.
Artikel 42 EU treaty. All members of the EU have to fight with their full capacity. This will escalate quickly.
There are already EU troops in the Baltics, just to remind the Russans of it.
You should read Article 42.
“obligation of aid and assistance by all the means in their power”. Which is far above what being in NATO requires states to do. Which just btw also covers Greenland. Only ones off the hook are Ireland and Austria due to being neutral, the treaty still covers them though.
Who said the attack would be with conventional armed forces?
https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/germany-warns-russia-may-be-preparing-attack-on-nato/
One of the traits of fascism by Umberto Eco, enemy is in the same time weak and strong.
Right, so in your version of this world, who is the fascist? Germany?