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Cake day: October 25th, 2023

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  • It was 20% in March this year. Not sure when the “study” was undertaken, but I’d say 80% is the vast majority compared to the 20% alternative, and so it’s not a surprise that the 80% contains more opinions (of all types, not just concern about range) than the 20%. With that difference in size, you can make a “study” say whatever you want as long as you selectively report that “people who don’t have an EV say X” without providing that context.

    There’s probably more people having sex every day amongst people who have never owned an EV, too. More people with an IQ over 180 as well. All meaningless, but hey it’s a study and that’s what it says.

    Once you factor in that someone for whom range is an issue is unlikely to buy an EV, it seems like a no-brainer that the 4x larger cohort would have more concerns about range.


  • Isn’t that going to be a self-selecting group? People for whom range isn’t an issue are obviously going to buy them since their situation allows it.

    Maybe range anxiety of the non-owner group is misplaced for a subset, but without additional detail it could also be a valid concern amongst that cohort depending on use.

    There’s also the simple fact that the vast majority of cars on the road in Norway are still not BEVs, so the “never owned one” cohort is likely to have more opinions (of all types) anyway by virtue of being ~4x the size of the BEV owner cohort.









  • Muñoz is eager to start making batteries and EVs in North America for Hyundai’s vehicles to qualify to the $7,500 federal incentives. Currently, no product from Hyundai Motor Group qualifies for these benefits given that their batteries don’t meet the new mineral requirements—even those made in Alabama.

    Makes sense to continue with EV build out if you have zero vehicles that qualify for incentives.

    Besides investing on EVs, Muñoz said Hyundai is going to keep pushing big on hybrids and plug-in hybrids. Currently, the Santa Fe and Tucson are the only two SUVs in Hyundai’s lineup that have a hybrid engine. The Sonata and Elantra also offer hybrid powertrains, but there is room to grow.

    I’ve said it before, but: anyone who doesn’t have a competitive hybrid system across their range at this point is going to lose sales this decade. Doesn’t matter how fast the EV rollout is, the cake is being eaten from both sides, and Hybrids are going to more or less be everything that isn’t an EV by the end of the decade (or earlier) - if you make ICE vehicles and you don’t have a competitive hybrid presence in each segment, you’re going to have a hard time in any segment without a hybrid.



  • while VW Group and Telsa have seen increased market share of about the same amount lost by Stellantis et al

    I think that’s not quite right, although they did take a big chunk - looks like Hyundai and Stellantis’ losses alone more than offset Tesla and VW:

    Tesla + VW = 2.2% gain in market share

    Hyundai + Stellantis = 2.9% loss in market share. (Stellantis alone had a 1.9% loss, almost offsetting it alone, with much of that loss spread evenly across Peugeot, Fiat, Opel/Vauxhall & Citroen).

    Note: This doesn’t mean Stellantis lost sales to Tesla & VW (although it’s likely they did lose some to them), just pointing out that there were a lot of movements across the market. More likely BEV heavy brands gained market share from more premium/luxury offerings across the market, since those are the price points where they compete).

    Other big movers were:

    Mercedes with a 0.7% loss (a bigger issue for them, since they didn’t have a huge amount of market share to begin with)

    and Renault with a 1% gain - contrary to a lot of narratives about how they’re faring, and a strong result. Surprised Toyota only dropped 0.3% considering their supply issues this year and the growth they’ve had over the past decade in EU off the back of hybrids, I suspect strong sales .

    And diesel continues its collapse - now down to just 12%. If you’re struggling to get a VAG EV overseas, this is a big reason why IMO - just a few years ago in 2019, approx. 1 in 2 VAG cars were diesels.

    Also interesting that once again, the shorter term data points to the same slowdown we’re seeing from every other source - and the same people in this thread can’t get their heads around YoY vs MoM statistics.

    Following a slowdown in September, Germany – the largest market for battery-electric cars – grew modestly (+4.3%) in October.

    4.3% gain YoY for October points to a slower than expected ramp - ie a slowdown in growth. It’s similar to other stories about low growth for October for BEVs, regardless of the the market. Germany’s the biggest EV market in the EU (hence why it’s singled out), and so serves as something of a litmus test. Hybrids, on the other hand, surged 57% for the month YoY in Germany.

    I expect that growth will increase in December - always a good car buying month - but whether it recovers enough to offset what is becoming continuing slower than expected growth remains to be seen.

    Sadly there’s no breakdown in ACEA’s data for wholesale/fleet vs retail, which is where the other story is - BEVs commanding a large disparity in favour of fleets vs the broader market.



  • The main thing these cash for clunkers schemes do is drive up the 2nd hand market by creating artificial scarcity.

    Manufacturers love this shit because coming off the back of supply issues, they can go back to pushing up demand for new vehicles all over again.

    It’s also a scheme that helps people that are already able to afford a new car - people shopping the 2nd hand market aren’t going to be helped, so it’s really not effective as a societal benefit - it just helps people who likely were already shopping for a new car get a slightly more expensive one.