Bobby goes for a drive in perhaps the most complete and advanced Chinese EV to arrive on European shores thus far: the BYD Seal. With next-generation battery...
BYD will eventually sell in the US, either with a factory here or via Mexico. They’ve figured out manufacturing and will go the Toyota route of volume over per car profitability, and just like Toyota, sweep up entire segments of the auto market.
Oh wait! Our lunatic politics started to throw a tantrum because this must be the evil CCP setting up a covert spy center!
We throw a fit when china takes our jobs using low wages and we also get angry when china bring jobs back and pay American level wages. Wtf do we want? We look pathetic and desperate like if we are running out of options.
You know how china got to where it was today? By saying “yes” to American factories in China.
China got to where it is by taking the tech of others. Lithium and LFP batteries were invented in America. Not to mention the hundreds of other IP they sent spies to take. The concern isn’t unwarranted.
American companies couldn’t even open their own plants in China, they had to partner with a Chinese operation. It wasn’t until THIS YEAR that China let outside companies own their own operations in the country just like in America where BYD Trucks, Polestar/Volvo, and a LARGE number of other Chinese companies outside of the automotive sector that no one talks about.
Furthermore, Gotion got rejected by a local town, not Congress. Not even American companies can just put things where they want to, citizens get a say.
The Ford battery plant, rejected by Virginia leadership was picked up by Michigan and despite the interference from Congress is STILL on track.
Congress itself can’t interfere with Ford or Tesla unless they are all on the same page and they can’t even pass a budget right now.
What I do know for sure is that the Federal Commerce dept will not let ANY company just bypass tariffs. Chinese solar panel makers tried doing that and they got blocked for it.
BYD just like Tesla in the EU will most likely have to settle down with a car plant in America if they want to take advantage of NAFTA.
Quite possibly, but if the total passenger-vehicle market were to remain at 2022’s 57.5 million, Tesla would need 11.5M unit sales to be 20% of that, while their aspirational goal remains at 20M by 2030.
Given how much the legacy automakers are scaling back their EV plans recently, while Tesla simply predicts somewhat lower than 50% growth for now, the needle is pointing more in the direction of my prediction than it was even 6 months ago.
BYD will eventually sell in the US, either with a factory here or via Mexico. They’ve figured out manufacturing and will go the Toyota route of volume over per car profitability, and just like Toyota, sweep up entire segments of the auto market.
The U.S. won’t let them use Mexico or Canada as a bypass. It’s against import rules. They will have to set up a car plant in the states first.
Right, just like gotion or CATL?
Oh wait! Our lunatic politics started to throw a tantrum because this must be the evil CCP setting up a covert spy center!
We throw a fit when china takes our jobs using low wages and we also get angry when china bring jobs back and pay American level wages. Wtf do we want? We look pathetic and desperate like if we are running out of options.
You know how china got to where it was today? By saying “yes” to American factories in China.
Don’t be so dramatic.
China got to where it is by taking the tech of others. Lithium and LFP batteries were invented in America. Not to mention the hundreds of other IP they sent spies to take. The concern isn’t unwarranted.
American companies couldn’t even open their own plants in China, they had to partner with a Chinese operation. It wasn’t until THIS YEAR that China let outside companies own their own operations in the country just like in America where BYD Trucks, Polestar/Volvo, and a LARGE number of other Chinese companies outside of the automotive sector that no one talks about.
Furthermore, Gotion got rejected by a local town, not Congress. Not even American companies can just put things where they want to, citizens get a say.
The Ford battery plant, rejected by Virginia leadership was picked up by Michigan and despite the interference from Congress is STILL on track.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/21/business/ford-ev-battery-plant-michigan.html
Congress itself can’t interfere with Ford or Tesla unless they are all on the same page and they can’t even pass a budget right now.
What I do know for sure is that the Federal Commerce dept will not let ANY company just bypass tariffs. Chinese solar panel makers tried doing that and they got blocked for it.
BYD just like Tesla in the EU will most likely have to settle down with a car plant in America if they want to take advantage of NAFTA.
They will build in Mexico, not just import it through there.
They have already bought a plant in South America to serve that market. Buying into a plant in Mexico or Canada won‘t be much of an issue for them.
Several years ago I made the following prediction for the auto market post-2030:
40% Chinese automakers
20% Tesla
40% Everyone else
We seem to be on track. Maybe a little overly generous on the third point.
A little over generous on the Tesla market.
Quite possibly, but if the total passenger-vehicle market were to remain at 2022’s 57.5 million, Tesla would need 11.5M unit sales to be 20% of that, while their aspirational goal remains at 20M by 2030.
Given how much the legacy automakers are scaling back their EV plans recently, while Tesla simply predicts somewhat lower than 50% growth for now, the needle is pointing more in the direction of my prediction than it was even 6 months ago.
Especially if Elon continues his current tweeting (X-ing?) behaviour.