Quite possibly, but if the total passenger-vehicle market were to remain at 2022’s 57.5 million, Tesla would need 11.5M unit sales to be 20% of that, while their aspirational goal remains at 20M by 2030.

Given how much the legacy automakers are scaling back their EV plans recently, while Tesla simply predicts somewhat lower than 50% growth for now, the needle is pointing more in the direction of my prediction than it was even 6 months ago.

Several years ago I made the following prediction for the auto market post-2030:

40% Chinese automakers
20% Tesla
40% Everyone else

We seem to be on track. Maybe a little overly generous on the third point.

I believe it’s that Tesla does nothing special for maintenance related to those inspections, whereas other carmakers offer periodic checkups timed to come just before the inspections so that their stats will look better than reality.

The other issue is that regen being set up for “1-pedal driving” means the brakes often get underused, and so rust etc can build up on the pads.