Prices didn’t go back down.
That’s deflation, and is actually really bad for society and the economy overall.
Honestly, more workers need to unionise and restore wages to where they should be (pegging back to rates in the 80s - 90s), minimum wage should be closer $25/hr.
If real wages continue to rise higher than CPI for blue/white collar workers, rather than the capital class - things would be a lot better overall.
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one of the really big problems with deflation in a system like the one we currently have is that there is no way to set a “negative” interest rate, at least trivially. So if something spicy happens, and you spiral down to a really aggressive negative interest rate, everything explodes instantly.
This is actually why we target a 2-3% interest rate, and in the times of financial struggle (globally) use it to create new money in order to stimulate an economy, which in turn raises inflation significantly, but beats another literal depression.
The primary difference between the great depression is that covid was significantly worse, and that modern monetary policy is incredibly resilient compared to back then.
you could theoretically have a system with deflation, but then the problem is that you have very little money moving through the market, and arguably you will move away from a currency based market, to a goods based market instead, which is quite literally a bad thing.
China recently deflated and is still having problems. It’s incredibly dangerous because it causes a negative feedback loop. Prices go down -> people wait to get a better price on something -> prices sink further -> people wait longer -> your economy starts stalling out and going into a nosedive.
Nobody wants to be the chump holding the bag if they buy an apartment for $50k and it drops to $20k in the next five months. :/
If deflation worked, everyone would be doing it, and we’d still be using half-cent coins just like the family in Little House on the Prairie did. (Which would kinda be awesome, I’d love to pay a half-cent for an orange.)
Deflation is actually bad because it would be an incentive to keep rather than spend money as its value would just increase by itself.
Money that is kept and never spent is worthless. Currency has to be used to have value, otherwise it’s just paper (or bits). The working class won’t hold on to their money, they have bills to pay, groceries to buy, etc. Only the wealthy would hold on to their money, which they’re already doing.
Only the wealthy would hold on to their money, which they’re already doing.
to be clear, “holding” on to money is innately going to be investing. Not only is holding onto significant piles of cash incredibly sketchy, it’s also really bad financial strategy, because you lose money over time, so you’re highly incentivized to invest the money you don’t actively need, into something that can do productive work for the market economy instead.
If we’re talking corporate money, which is different, and not the type of money you mentioned, things work a bit differently, but generally the mechanism is roughly the same, with some tax benefits, and mechanisms to create productivity rather than provide it instead. There are some funny things you can do like stock buybacks, but those do have some market utility though.
That was my point, pretty much. The issue is that money that’s kept is useless for society, but if its value increases it gains potential usefulness for its owner. I’m not saying that ordinary people will stop buying food and I’m not saying that corporations are doing community work right now, but the world in which the rich get even richer without even spending their money on something will be problematic at best. The economy will crash while everybody will hold on to whatever moves they have.
Only the wealthy would hold on to their money, which they’re already doing.
No, they invest it otherwise it loses value over time. Invested money is put to work.
Work? Like “buying” yet another company? Or stock buybacks?
Like loans to companies and individuals, startup investments, stock purchases, etc. Money that moves around is useful. Money that is tucked under a mattress is not.
No, like paying your wages. You should read a bit about how things work before getting upset.
Japan has had deflation for 25 years and the zombies haven’t shown up yet. In fact it’s a really nice place.
Turns out deflation isn’t so horrible if it’s only moderate, kind of like inflation.
News flash, most Americans were paycheck to paycheck before inflation, too.
“I’ve turned off the oven, yet food is still burnt”
If you really want to compare that to inflation slowing, then you haven’t turned off the oven, you just slowed down the rate that you are making it hotter.
“Inflation” to economists is how much the price is going up this month.
“Inflation” to most people is how much stuff costs.
It feels like there needs to be some acknowledgement of that when this is all talked about, after the superinflation of 2022. The goal should be that prices go back down, not that they go back to going up by 3% per year now that they’re way up high.
The levers which incentives wages closing the gap on the “super inflation” are probably more realistic than the levers that would cause the prices of everything to deflate.
You really don’t want deflation. The correct thing now is for wages to go up to match the new costs and this has been happening.
That’s not really true though. The only way to maintain infinite inflation is with infinite growth. But we only have finite resources. We also have modern examples of countries that experience deflation and they aren’t the horror shows that the finance industry wants about. For example, Japan.
The only way to maintain infinite inflation is with infinite growth
No - monetary policy also effects inflation. See also “stagflation”.
We also have modern examples of countries that experience deflation and they aren’t the horror shows that the finance industry wants about. For example, Japan.
It doesn’t have to be a “horror show” for it to be “bad”. Japan’s “lost decades” are hardly desirable.
Deflation would mean money is worth more. Great! But then prices drop. And then salaries drop. And now the ability for somebody to pay back a 30-yr. fixed mortgage gets harder over time rather than easier as it does in an inflationary environment.
So yeah - I’d rather a pay rise to match (or hopefully exceed) inflation that makes it easier for me to repay loans.
Edit: Oh - and frankly the thing that tends to lead to “disaster” is a rapid change in any direction. The entire goal of the “2%” inflation is “price stability”. The US economy going into deflation would be catastrophic from our current trend.
You mean all those people who thought housing was an investment would get caught with a bad investment?
Oh shucks. Well, I better get back in line for the organ grinding machine then.
Both cycles have their downsides. Nobody is saying they don’t. But having one without the other is unsustainable. You’re afraid salaries will go down. Guess what? They went down anyways. They show a higher number, but every year they don’t beat inflation is a year they went down. If wages drop during inflation and deflation, in real and gross terms, then I would venture to guess that inflation or deflation isn’t the core problem there, but letting corporations rig the game so they always win over the workers. Also if 2% inflation is stabilization, why isn’t 2% deflation? There’s no magic thing about crossing the line that makes the economy crash.
You mean all those people who thought housing was an investment would get caught with a bad investment?
WTAF are you talking about? No - I’m talking about home ownership, purchasing a vehicle, starting a business, expanding a business, doing home repair / expansion, etc.
Do you just think “hey - one thing went wrong once so everything to do with that is broken”?
I won’t continue this conversation - it’s not worth it.
All of that still happens in countries with deflation.
to most people is how much stuff costs.
inflation to most people is an increase in the cost of stuff* FTFY
also to be clear, the goal is that wages rise to meet the increased inflation, that’s the historical trend.
They’ll keep waiting too. Because without some shock therapy like raising min wage to like $25 an hour overnight and taking that economic hit it’s never going to get any better. This is the new normal until that happens.
Yeah. Because wages have remained stagnant, or even decreased relative to prices. Inflation is supposed to be a response to people making more money, but that never happened. So now we’re all just effectively poorer.
Inflation can happen for a bunch of reasons. It’s just always cited in arguments against raising wages. The proper answer to which is, prices went up last year anyways, why can’t prices go up a cent so I can have a dollar?
“inflation has slowed, but prices are still high? Why is that?”
literally the title of this thread/article
Man i sure wonder why my rate of increase % lowering hasn’t done much to change the value that it’s cumulatively adding on top of…
You guys are getting pay checks?
“Many Americans” have always and will always live paycheck to paycheck. Seize the means of production.
The median sits around 80k these days. Everyone should be cheering, right?
What nobody wants to acknowledge is that the mode is still high 30’s. Until that changes, we’re leaving people behind.
I mean yeah, lower inflation doesn’t mean prices go back down, and wages didn’t inflate for most people.
CNBC can fuck all the way off with that brain dead journalism.
We were living paycheck to paycheck before that inflation boom too.
But it’s also because inflation is a measurement of velocity, not a static indicator. If you have a year with ten percent inflation, that doesn’t go away without deflation happening and the finance industry would rather nuke the stock exchange than allow deflation.
Inflation is still happening just slower. So things are still getting more expensive and wages are not following. It’s not rocket science unless the guy funding your research specifically asks you to never recommend any solutions that don’t make rich people richer.
They were doing that too begin with though?
