Oh thank goodness, the fossil fuel industry is preserved just a little while longer!

I’ll tell this story in three parts:

1. Tesla’s US subsidies

2. China’s EV exports

3. China’s “overcapacity”

Part 1.Tesla’s US subsidies. Under the US’ Inflation Reduction Act, purchases of new EVs made in the USA were given a tax incentive of $7500. Previously, states such as California has other incentives such as the $7500 incentive under CVRP. How much in subsidies has Tesla received from tax credits alone under the IRA in 2023, ignoring state-level benefits and carryover from pre-2023 benefits? 654000 sales, for a total of almost $5 billion dollars in purchase-side government subsidies. For 2023. We also know that Tesla has received billions in state-level government funding to set up factories in California, and billions more in government funding for their other various efforts. In comparison between 2009 and 2022, China handed out about $28 billion in EV subsidies, much of that at the state-level to encourage companies to set up factories. In fact, Tesla received huge subsidies to set up it’s factories in Shanghai. By the end of 2022, China had phased out most purchase-side subsidies (except some lingering programs that are not set for renewal). Note that the maximum purchase-side subsidy was about $1750. China’s most significant subsidy today is in it’s expansion of the domestic charging network: China makes up 68% of the world’s charging stations, with a huge number of them being fast chargers. Much of that expansion came out of government coffers and is a huge driver for EV adoption in China.

Part 2. China’s EV exports. In 2022, China’s EV exports were as follows, sorted by volume:

270k - Tesla

140k - SAIC (mostly under the British brand MG)

72k - European joint ventures

55k - BYD

(others)

So, let’s be more clear about what the EU means: they don’t like that foreign companies (including European ones, but mostly Tesla, and almost all European/American brands) are setting up shop in China to produce cars for export.

Part 3. China’s “overcapacity”. It’s no secret that China has pitiful O&G reserves. Oil, notably, is needed for ICE vehicles, but not for EVs. That is, the switch to EVs is a matter of national security for China as it reduces Chinese reliance on foreign oil supplies. Indeed, a huge proportion of Chinese EV production is going to the domestic market, and exports make up only about 10% of total sales (for reference, this number is more like 70% for Toyota).

To sum it up: unlike Toyota/Japan (and others), China is consuming the vast majority of its production. Meanwhile, a huge number of it’s exports are from foreign companies. It’s most notable exporter is Tesla, which is notable for having received $5 billion in purchase-side tax incentives in 2023 in the US… Alone. This is compared to $28 billion between 2009 and 2022, most of which have been phased out, and for which a big proportion was to encourage setting up factories in specific provinces or to build out a domestic charging network.

Edit: to clarify, China does have more car factories than they know what to do with. This is because ICE companies are getting fucked by EV companies. All those factories dedicated to producing ICE cars? Fucked. Idling. Useless. Sales of all cars in China: Volkswagen (-0.2% YoY), Toyota (-3.8% YoY), Honda (-12.3% YoY), Nissan (-14.3% YoY). The only foreign brands that are staying alive in China are EV brands like Tesla (+20% YoY) and luxury cars like BMW (+7.8% YoY) and Audi (+11.3% YoY). These idling ICE factories are currently being closed by the government and the government is limiting licenses handed out for new factories.

Ironically, Tesla is a large part of the reason why Chinese EVs are so cheap because they started the price war… They just couldn’t win it.

Just for the record: Some cars from BMW, Dacia, Renault and Tesla are also imported from China and will get a 21% tariff as well. Probably lots of other brands as well.

It will be interesting to see if they will attempt to pull production back home.

VW seems to have an advantage by already going into fully domestic production, but they still need to prove that they can match the pricing.

Hey it could be worse

It could be a 100% tax like the USA

Could also be roads full of boat sized junk from Ford, GM, and Chrysler.

China subsidies vehicles, say €5000

EU tariffs vehicles, say €5000

Every vehicle purchase basically comes with €5000 from the Chinese government for the EU government

The CCP doesn’t want you to know this one simple trick

BYD+18% or a too expensive European car, I know what I’ll get. Anyway, we don’t have cars fully “made in France” here, car makers should be ashamed of themselves as they mostly rely on those taxes to prevent competition.

This is such bullshit. The EU is supposed to be encouraging EV adoption. There’s a market NOW for affordable EVs it will take years for European car companies to get into. The EU needs to help these companies produce affordable EVs faster, not block Chinese companies from providing a solution in the meantime. Climate change is already a crisis. We need to be doing everything possible to reduce its escalating effects.

Boy oh boy, is that ever not enough if they want to stop Chinese EVS. They’ll need a 200% tariff just to compete with Chinese EV prices.

And those Chinese EVS are exceeding European/American Auto safety standards.

$9700, $11,000, $15,000 USD for a new car

https://electrek.co/2024/03/06/byd-launches-cheaper-seagull-ev-9700-price/

Shut the fuck up about China having closer ties with Russia then.