Yes, if demand increases, Tesla will increase prices. They’ve made it very clear that they adjust their prices to manage their sell through of their cars. They have less parking lot space to maintain an inventory than the legacy OEMs and their dealership network. So Tesla has to be more nimble than the OEMs on this issue.

However, based on breakdowns of the car costs and their own financial disclosures, Tesla has excellent margins on their vehicles (and that is before they get to the 100% margin part of their business where they sell you a software update to get stuff like FSD). So with the current cost of lithium (which is back to historically normal pricing) there seems to be little problem for Tesla to keep this level of pricing and still cash flow enough to support the car part, expensive R&D like cyber truck, and silly Elon stuff like buying Twitter. Cash on the balance sheet increased from $23 billion to $26 billion last quarter. I would guess that current pricing is sustainable from a cash flow perspective and Tesla certainly says in its public reports to shareholders that it is sustainable.

Definitely more than rumor as Tesla puts it in their presentations as part of their plan. I’m thinking smaller battery and smaller car, but also maybe less sensors for auto drive features. Obviously going to be called 2 because it won’t be as good as 3 and the lineup will then be 2 S3XY. 3 could be improved and increase in price from where it is now (we don’t know what Highlander 3 will price at in the US) and 2 could have that $15k gap. Might still be five years out though. Actually probably still five years out with the CT issues taking up time.

Yes, you can charge off a 220. Yes, it will be not only faster than a 110, but it will be fast enough to be a full solution for anyone but a heavy commuter who also doesn’t spend much time at home (e.g., 120 mile commute and you regularly don’t get home until 10pm and you leave at 7 am). You may need to buy adapters and charging cord depending on the car you buy and what it comes with. But fundamentally if you can park your car at home near a 220 outlet, you are going to be set. For convenience and some safety, many folks will suggest getting a dedicated EV charger installed The Tesla dedicated wall charger is $475, so if you go the Tesla route, you should almost definitely just have one of those installed. Or get the universal version for $595. Even if you have a Tesla, visitors who drive EVs can easily top up during a visit.

I’m sure Wallstreet doesn’t expect Tesla to capture 60% of the US EV market at the point where EVs are making up 50% of the US new car market and then beyond as EVs take even more of the market. In 2022, the US car and light truck market was nearly 14 million so that would take 8.4 million Teslas to capture 60%. At $5,000 in profit per car, that would be $42 billion in profit per year just out of the US market. Tesla’s market cap would be way higher if that was a reasonable expectation.

So losing market share from 60% is priced into the stock and expected by basically everyone. You are right though that the question is: how fast does the market share erode (as the market grows quickly) and where does it start to settle in (e.g., does Tesla settle in at 25% of the US new car market; that would be huge because it would be 3.5 million a year of sales just in the US (a massive increase over the about 600,000 Tesla will sell in the US in 2023 and not remotely a number of cars that Tesla can manufacture for the US anytime soon)).

Fast charging in California is going to be a lot of charging at peak time (between 5 and 10 pm) and you will spend something close to what you would spend on gas for a fuel efficient car. Of course, if you get a Tesla, you will have a car with the speed of a sports car (yes, the base model 3 is not that fast, so think of it as fast as a cheaper and sporty car from the 80s; 0 to 60 in under 6 seconds is a pretty fast car) at a running cost of an economy car. So it isn’t all bad.

Tesla can also just tell the industry your cars won’t work on our chargers and nobody will buy your cars because they won’t work on our chargers and then Tesla will continue to dominate the US EV market. Standards are good for everyone and it is clear that in the US that Tesla is going to set the standards.

Tesla puts its chargers on the back left of its cars (left from the driver position). Other car manufacturers will do other things, but eventually follow Tesla’s design since their cars will be using Tesla’s super charger network. So back left is going to be standard. The real question is, are you a back into the garage or a nose into the garage person? That will give you your answer.