People buying them up to tow with their cybertrucks 😆

Pretty sure they aren’t. It’s just number of problems divided by the number of vehicles.

They do that on individual models, but a lot of the overall numbers are just pretty basic averages without any useful statistical analysis behind them.

It’s interesting, companies building really good EVs seem to have no problem selling them, and are expanding production. Companies building mediocre and overpriced EVs are making lots of excuses and backtracking. It’s almost as if the quality of your product matters or something?

They do rate older cars reliability but Im pretty sure the automaker ratings are based on only the last few model years, which means vehicles that are only a couple years old.

CR’s “reliability” ratings are more like “initial quality” since they really only look at problem areas in the first few years and not really long-term reliability of vehicles over time.

Agreed. This will fail miserably at the price point. I was expecting more volvo xc90, but it’s not even really as big as the xc60. More like a slightly differently packaged xc40. I have no idea how they expect to get $80k for this thing. At slightly more expensive than the p2 I get it (under $60k), but at $80k no way!

Um it definitely isn’t irrelevant. They can definitely easily create barriers to import of Chinese manufactured vehicles, but once those vehicles begin being manufactured in Mexico, which is within the next few years, USMCA (new NAFTA) comes into play and it becomes extremely difficult to keep them out as long as they meet all other requirements for new vehicles.

Sounds like the database only has information for the ICE blazer?

They don’t which us why automakers who have to rely on them are screwed and why 2/3rd of EV sales in the US don’t go through dealers.

Yet our prices are still determined by the global price.

They are relying on the Chinese to build their BEVs in China where they have already lost about 10% of their market share and dropping rapidly.

Tesla has returned their EVs to pre-pandrmic prices. They increased them by like $20k between 2021 and 2022 because demand was so high and no one else had any EVs to sell. The whole market is returning to “nornal” but all people want to talk about is the EV side of things. If you look at pickups these days it’s not uncommon to see $10k in incentives.

But that would undercut their argument that no one wants them and that regulators should give them a break. Don’t worry, the Chinese will find a way into the market eventually and offer them.

Dealers are the reason that 2/3rds of EVs aren’t sold through dealers.

Almost certainly increases it, but not clear how much effect it will have since it’s only available for vehicles that are resold for the first time. Basically if you buy an EV it will be optimal to hold it until the price drops below $25k before reselling/trading it in. Unfortunately, virtually all leased EVs will be returned before they drop below $25k. When I was EV shopping, most had residuals in the low $30k range, so those EVs will never be eligible for the used tax credit. In short the limited number of vehicles that will be eligible and the limited number of customers who will qualify is likely to limit both the usefulness of the credit and its effect on the used market/residuals.

This. You have to measure the depreciation against what it will cost to buy a new one right now with the various incentives in place.

It will be interesting to see how things shake out over time. I think new EVs will contine to have pretty steep initial depreciation, but actually stabilize a bit in years 3-5. That seems to be the case with a lot of Teslas. Basically rapidly drop below $30k, but stay between 20-30k for a long time. Lots of demand for good, reliable, used cars in that price range.

I have. Here’s the actual sales data

sales data graph

OK, show me the data. There is arguably a slight slowdown in the rate of growth, but sales and market share are still growing basically everywhere in the world. Globally sales are up about 40% year over year, and the US they’re up about 50%. That’s darn strong growth no matter how you look at it.

The problem is that even what you suggest isn’t true. There is no slowdown beyond some month to month volatility. If you look at anything beyond month to month sales are up quarter over quarter and year over year basically everywhere in the world, especially the US.