Stellantis (STLA) will partner with Chinese battery manufacturer Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., or CATL, to open a EV battery factory in Europe. The au...
China and Tesla will force the rest to have price cuts. Maintain your old car and be patient. There is a price war looming.
The moores law of batteries seems to be around 15-20% per kWh per year, with Sodium-ion poised to take over the cheap city car market at half the cost of lithium-ion.
The total cost of the battery in most EVs is in the $7k to $8k range. That’s $1600 the first year, $1300 the second year and $1000 the 3rd year best case even if your numbers turn out to be true. Even with that best case and assuming labor and other materials hold the same cost year-over-year, inflation of 3% on a $40k EV will hold the price the same.
Never before have cars gotten cheaper over time. It’s only happening now because we had 30%+ inflation and 200%+ inflation on specific inputs on cars. As those inputs have come down, so have prices to some degree. Tesla was printing money and decided to merely make a lot of money so they can support the volume increases they already had in the pipeline. Don’t expect them to keep getting over their skis on production going forward and I’m sure they fully intend to return to printing money as soon as they can.
Seen what is happening with Chinese cars? They are pumping out $20k cars that don’t suck. China is building out massive car factories in Mexico ‘for the Mexican market’. Buying up battery material suppliers in Morocco because that gets around NAFTA. Also all of a sudden the Chinese cars are doing well in crash tests. They know how to copy good crash structures just fine now. Especially since Geele bought Volvo.
They aren’t concerned about the Mexican market. They want a piece of the American market and that price competition will be fierce.
Auto makers are price gouging, pure and simple. What they don’t want to admit is that it almost crossed the point where making an EV is cheaper. Emission certifying a ICE motor is a 9 figure expense. 9 figures! Once the battery and electric motor factories are paid off, a basic electric car is a really simple machine to make. Unfortunately the trend has been to turn them into tech products full of garbage we don’t need. As price competition heats up, stripping down the cars to be simple again will be the solution for the cheap market. The core electric car drivetrain is actually simpler than the same ICE drivetrain when factoring in emissions equipment.
When they build Mexican factories, they will have to pay the same rates as any manufacture in Mexico. They don’t have some magic to saving money, they have cheap government funded inputs and low labor costs. American companies are more than capable of competing with them.
China and Tesla will force the rest to have price cuts. Maintain your old car and be patient. There is a price war looming.
The moores law of batteries seems to be around 15-20% per kWh per year, with Sodium-ion poised to take over the cheap city car market at half the cost of lithium-ion.
The total cost of the battery in most EVs is in the $7k to $8k range. That’s $1600 the first year, $1300 the second year and $1000 the 3rd year best case even if your numbers turn out to be true. Even with that best case and assuming labor and other materials hold the same cost year-over-year, inflation of 3% on a $40k EV will hold the price the same.
Never before have cars gotten cheaper over time. It’s only happening now because we had 30%+ inflation and 200%+ inflation on specific inputs on cars. As those inputs have come down, so have prices to some degree. Tesla was printing money and decided to merely make a lot of money so they can support the volume increases they already had in the pipeline. Don’t expect them to keep getting over their skis on production going forward and I’m sure they fully intend to return to printing money as soon as they can.
Seen what is happening with Chinese cars? They are pumping out $20k cars that don’t suck. China is building out massive car factories in Mexico ‘for the Mexican market’. Buying up battery material suppliers in Morocco because that gets around NAFTA. Also all of a sudden the Chinese cars are doing well in crash tests. They know how to copy good crash structures just fine now. Especially since Geele bought Volvo.
They aren’t concerned about the Mexican market. They want a piece of the American market and that price competition will be fierce.
Auto makers are price gouging, pure and simple. What they don’t want to admit is that it almost crossed the point where making an EV is cheaper. Emission certifying a ICE motor is a 9 figure expense. 9 figures! Once the battery and electric motor factories are paid off, a basic electric car is a really simple machine to make. Unfortunately the trend has been to turn them into tech products full of garbage we don’t need. As price competition heats up, stripping down the cars to be simple again will be the solution for the cheap market. The core electric car drivetrain is actually simpler than the same ICE drivetrain when factoring in emissions equipment.
When they build Mexican factories, they will have to pay the same rates as any manufacture in Mexico. They don’t have some magic to saving money, they have cheap government funded inputs and low labor costs. American companies are more than capable of competing with them.
Mexico accounts for 25% of auto manufacturing. It is significant.