I have been going down a rabbit hole of potentially buy an EV and it’s been astonishing to me, especially living in California, how unattractive it is to buy an EV.

I will give you a few reasons why:

-I have to upgrade my electric panel to support charging -I have to switch to an EV plan through PG&E, which increases my partial and peak kilowatt an hour here is the breakdown of my summer rates (winter is lower by like 10 cents for both plans)

  • E-TOU-C (current plan)

    • Peak (4-9 PM): 54 cents/kWh
    • Off-Peak: 46 cents/kWh
    • Lower rates for usage within Baseline Allowance.
  • EV2:

    • Peak (4-9 PM): 59.068 cents/kWh
    • Part-Peak (3-4 PM & 9-12 AM): 48.019 cents/kWh
    • Off-Peak (All other hours): 27.818 cents/kWh
    • Delivery Minimum Bill: $0.37612 per meter per day.

-I have to pay someone to install a wall charger. Got a quote for $1900

-I have to pay an additional $103 a year to register an EV in CA

-On top of all these fees I don’t even qualify for many incentives as as a household we make over 300k which is honestly nothing crazy for coastal California when you factor in living expenses.

With all of these additional upfront costs and insane electric prices how does California expect people to adopt EVs?

I really want to buy one but it seems like more of a statement play and potential car performance play then a smart economic choice.

I did a cost comparison between a used Tesla Model X, a new Ford F-150 Lightning, and a new Toyota Grand Highlander Hybrid. Here’s a summary including assumptions and formulas used.

Assumptions:

  • Prices: $70,000 for the Tesla Model X, $65,500 for the Ford F-150 Lightning (after rebate), $56,000 for the Toyota Grand Highlander Hybrid.
  • Annual miles driven: 13,500.
  • Gas price: $5.73/gallon, Electricity price: $0.27/kWh.
  • Toyota MPG: 31.
  • EV maintenance costs are 60% of a gas vehicle’s maintenance.

Formulas:

  • Annual Fuel/Electricity Cost: (Miles Driven / Efficiency) * Price per Unit.
  • Total Cost (5 Years): Purchase Price + (Operating Costs * 5).
  • Total Cost (10 Years): Purchase Price + (Operating Costs * 10).

Results Over 5 Years:

  1. Tesla Model X: Approx. $77,797.
  2. Ford F-150 Lightning: Approx. $78,064.
  3. Toyota Grand Highlander Hybrid: Approx. $73,665.

Results Over 10 Years:

  1. Tesla Model X: Approx. $85,082.
  2. Ford F-150 Lightning: Approx. $90,628.
  3. Toyota Grand Highlander Hybrid: Approx. $85,141.

Conclusion: The Toyota Grand Highlander Hybrid is the most cost-effective over 5 years, while the Tesla Model X becomes more economical over 10 years due to lower operating costs.

The big unknown for me is I’m fairly confident the Toyota will be working well well beyond 10 years. We’re still yet to see how EVs and the batteries hold up over that period of time.

Would love to hear everyone’s thoughts. Coming back to the title if we feel the electric rates are at all time highs due to inflation then maybe the cost analysis is off however, I would assume gas would follow suit. I guess it depends at what percentage one would fall or increase over the next 10 years.

  • sjg284@alien.topB
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    10 months ago

    Didn’t realize how bad CA electric rates are. Remember you can produce your own electric but not your own gas. I pay 19cents and have run the numbers on installing solar a few times… at 3x the electric rate it should be a no brainer for you economically.

  • futbol1216@alien.topB
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    10 months ago

    I love when people make a public post with their mind already set just to bait random online people to argue with them. Well done OP. Good game. 💪

    • joke656@alien.topB
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      10 months ago

      I don’t know, I think this is a good post. A large portion of the EV noise is about how you’ll save money, and I think the EV segment does itself no favors by perpetuating it. Just be real.

      There are a handful of reasons an EV is right for specific use cases. “Saving money” is definitely not one.

      Like, 98% or the people that can even use any of the vanishing tax credits aren’t the people that can afford a $60k car anyway lol

    • chi3fer@alien.topOPB
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      10 months ago

      I literally said how does California expect EV adoption. I never said anything about general EV adoption. Sounds like you want to argue sir

      • OaktownCatwoman@alien.topB
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        10 months ago

        I agree somewhat. When I first got an EV in 2015 I think the off peak EV rate was about $0.10. It only grew a little bit for a few years but around 2020/2021 it jumped from $0.14 to $0.24. They blamed it mostly on rising natural gas prices. Still about 50% the price gas but it used to be about 25%.

    • chi3fer@alien.topOPB
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      10 months ago

      What is my mind set on? Literally everything I have said about any car has been neutral

  • HandyMan131@alien.topB
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    10 months ago

    I would say to put solar panels on your house to hedge against increasing electric pricing… but Californias new net metering is pretty anti-solar too. Sorry it sucks so much there.

  • Neutrino467@alien.topB
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    10 months ago

    Going solar and installing new panel and EV charger can save some money if you bundle it. Electricity prices will keep going up and so will gas. In San Diego we have also the EV-TOU 5 which gives you 15 c/kWH during off peak. We made the plunge and switched to solar and batteries. If you take savings for electricity into account then this can make sense over the LONG run. Batteries can help with peak rates when electricity is insanely pricey.

  • vg80@alien.topB
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    10 months ago

    First off why not add rooftop solar and storage then do peak shaving/arbitrage? Solar is way cheaper than your utility.

    Second my assumption is oil will grow more in cost because it’s not fungible like electricity generation.

  • ThMogget@alien.topB
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    10 months ago

    Isn’t that the problem? Gasoline prices are in the hands of an oil cartel and subject to geopolitical instability that can instantly double prices.

    There is maybe a small chance my jurisdiction will cancel my net metering agreement for solar panels, but otherwise they just work and work for decades. Whether or not Russia or Iran does something else stupid.

  • malko2@alien.topB
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    10 months ago

    Roughly the same electricity rates as here in Switzerland. Been going up around 30% every year for 5 years now. Gas has been very high but stable. My prediction is that the oil producing nations will do everything to keep gas prices at current rates in order to delay EV proliferation. Within the next 10 years, EVs will be more expensive to run than gas vehicles, but the availability of the latter will continuously diminish.

  • RefuseAmazing3422@alien.topB
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    10 months ago

    You’re not doing an apples to apples analysis because the vehicle models are so different and have different prices. Split it into purchase price and running costs and you’ll find the EV is cheaper as long as you don’t pay too much initially.

    Several other factors to consider. First CA is moving to an income based flat fee for electricity. What this means is that the per kWh cost is going to go down, probably by a significant amount. Look up ab205. This will swing things more to electricity.

    Second gas is going to be subject to more and higher price spikes going forward. There is already a reluctance to build more infrastructure. In contrast increased solar is driving the wholesale price of electricity to zero during the day. Imagine you can charge at work for business rates. (Right now on sdge I can charge during the day at work for 20c kWh which is half residential price).

    Third factor in the value of your time. How much is it worth to never have to go to a gas station. Or waste time on maintenance or repairs.

  • Frubanoid@alien.topB
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    10 months ago

    Next year, you can transfer the federal tax credit to the dealership up front at time of purchase so tax liability won’t matter. Not sure about income requirements on this next one, but there is a 30% tax rebate on the cost of the installation plus charger, and some car companies like Hyundai are offering free home charger and installation with a car purchase of Kona, Ioniq 5 or 6.

  • nagleess@alien.topB
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    10 months ago

    Installed solar panels and a battery, the electricity is basically free. The offset puts me at a 10-15 year payback period, after that it’s paying me.

    A lot more people will do this, a lot of properties will do this, electricity is now as expensive as it will ever get.

  • amzlym@alien.topB
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    10 months ago

    I’ll admit I didn’t read the entire post but I believe it will…

    …depend where you live because of the state tax rates and fees.

    …become more and more efficient to produce electricity.

    …become less efficient to deliver gas as refineries continue to shut down and the distance to end user increases.

  • jeremiah256@alien.topB
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    10 months ago

    Currently, there is less choice for the size vehicle you need but a large PHEV allows you to straddle the line and shift usage as necessary, regardless which increases.

    And you can use a splitter with your dryer to charge a PHEV overnight using 220V, so no overly expensive structural changes needed.

    • murrayhenson@alien.topB
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      10 months ago

      My wife and I, located in Poland, did a 9.5 kWp solar installation almost two years ago. It cost around 42k PLN (~10.5k USD), though we got back almost 18k PLN in tax breaks ($4400 USD). So it really wasn’t very expensive.

      The cost of electricity here is currently at 0.7 PLN/kWh (~0.163 USD/kWh)… which doesn’t seem like much, but you have to remember that we earn like a quarter of the average salary in the US. So the electricity here isn’t considered particularly inexpensive.

      We’ll have the solar panels paid off in about five years, give or take a year depending on whether electricity prices go up more, and a couple of other variables.

  • GJMOH@alien.topB
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    10 months ago

    One issue is you live in California, my electricity rate in Cincinnati is .15 all day/night.