I don’t know a single person voting Nats but my gut feeling is they will get it. And likely not by a huge margin, meaning Nat-Act govt likely.
ITT no discussing why X should or shouldn’t be in, just your predictions.
Also, is it illegal to bet on elections?
If you believe to polls, NZF are most likely getting in, and could be at 6-7%. If that happens it’s very unlikely either left or right blocs can govern alone. So a National / Act / NZF coalition seems the most likely (I doubt very much Winston will go back on his word and go with Labour).
However all the main results are within a few percentage points. The above is the most likely, but a win for either left or right blocs is definitely still in play.
Winston went back on his word and went with National in 1996, and went back on his word and supported Labour in 2005. So I dunno, it could come down to what parties decide ‘work with’ means
True. I think he’ll prefer not to prop up a struggling Labour government. But I guess we’ll have to see.
I agree it does seem more likely it’ll go that way at the moment, but it also seems far less of a done deal than things were looking a couple weeks ago
I don’t think Labour would, or could form a coalition with Green, TPM & NZ1.
Coalitions aren’t the only option
True, a minority govt with Winston on confidence & supply is an option too. Probably not especially viable though.
Unfortunately it would (given it is Winston after all) be the other way round Labour-NZF minority gov with TPM & Greens for confidence and supply