Rapidcreek@lemmy.world to politics @lemmy.world · 1 month agoHarris is borrowing from 'Republican playbook' as she leads Trump in new national pollwww.cnbc.comexternal-linkmessage-square24fedilinkarrow-up1115arrow-down18
arrow-up1107arrow-down1external-linkHarris is borrowing from 'Republican playbook' as she leads Trump in new national pollwww.cnbc.comRapidcreek@lemmy.world to politics @lemmy.world · 1 month agomessage-square24fedilink
minus-squarejordanlund@lemmy.worldMlinkfedilinkarrow-up54arrow-down1·1 month agoSo a couple of things… As usual, national polls are useless. Numbers after the jump. “pollster Frank Luntz said.” Obligatory “Fuck you, Frank!” For those who don’t get that reference, it’s from Penn and Teller’s “Bullshit!” episode on polling: https://youtu.be/7nGv_xmT7mY https://youtu.be/0s5Q1e8EBwA Now… ALLLLL that being said… Last time I did this, Harris hit 270 exactly. First time this year any candidate hit the magic number. AZ - Toss Up. Harris +1, +3, Trump +1, +4 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/ NV - Toss Up. Tie, Harris +1, Trump +1 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/ NM - Harris +5, +8, +10 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/new-mexico/ GA - Toss Up, 5 separate polls show tie votes. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/ FL - Trump +6, +13, +14 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/florida/ NC - Toss Up, Harris +3, Trump +1, +2, +3 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/ PA - Toss Up, Tie, Harris +1, +4, Trump +1, +3 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/ MI - Tie, Harris +2, +3. 3rd parties 0 to 1%, no impact. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/ WI - Harris +1, +2, +3, +4, Trump +1 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/ MN - Harris +5, +6, +8 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/minnesota/ Plotted on the map: As usual, PA is a must win. If Harris takes it, that’s it, she doesn’t need anything else. Failing that, NC or GA + any 1 other state. AZ + NV alone is not enough, that drops her right at 268. For Trump, he has to win PA to stay in, that gives him 238, from there he needs 32 more. So NC + GA. Or NV + AZ and either NC or GA. Minimum 1 state for Harris to win, PA. Also a 2 state win of NC or GA + 1 other. Max would be 3 states. AZ, NV + 1 other. Minimum 3 states for Trump to win (PA, GA, NC), could be as many as 4 of the 5 outstanding (PA, AZ, NV, + GA or NC)
minus-squareHylactor@sopuli.xyzlinkfedilinkarrow-up10·1 month agoCan someone further compress this down so my illiterate ass can parse it more easily?
minus-squarejordanlund@lemmy.worldMlinkfedilinkarrow-up17·1 month agoHarris has 3 paths to victory, a 1, 2, or 3 state solution. Trump has 2 paths, a 3 or 4 state solution. Only 5 states are up for grabs. If Harris loses PA, she has 2 more options. If Trump wins PA, he still needs 2 to 3 other states.
minus-squareabff08f4813c@j4vcdedmiokf56h3ho4t62mlku.srv.uslinkfedilinkarrow-up2·1 month agoThank you for the hard work you put into this! This is really encouraging.
So a couple of things…
As usual, national polls are useless. Numbers after the jump.
“pollster Frank Luntz said.”
For those who don’t get that reference, it’s from Penn and Teller’s “Bullshit!” episode on polling:
https://youtu.be/7nGv_xmT7mY
https://youtu.be/0s5Q1e8EBwA
Now… ALLLLL that being said… Last time I did this, Harris hit 270 exactly. First time this year any candidate hit the magic number.
AZ - Toss Up. Harris +1, +3, Trump +1, +4
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/
NV - Toss Up. Tie, Harris +1, Trump +1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/
NM - Harris +5, +8, +10
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/new-mexico/
GA - Toss Up, 5 separate polls show tie votes.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/
FL - Trump +6, +13, +14
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/florida/
NC - Toss Up, Harris +3, Trump +1, +2, +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/
PA - Toss Up, Tie, Harris +1, +4, Trump +1, +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/
MI - Tie, Harris +2, +3. 3rd parties 0 to 1%, no impact.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/
WI - Harris +1, +2, +3, +4, Trump +1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/
MN - Harris +5, +6, +8
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/minnesota/
Plotted on the map:
As usual, PA is a must win. If Harris takes it, that’s it, she doesn’t need anything else.
Failing that, NC or GA + any 1 other state. AZ + NV alone is not enough, that drops her right at 268.
For Trump, he has to win PA to stay in, that gives him 238, from there he needs 32 more. So NC + GA. Or NV + AZ and either NC or GA.
Minimum 1 state for Harris to win, PA. Also a 2 state win of NC or GA + 1 other. Max would be 3 states. AZ, NV + 1 other.
Minimum 3 states for Trump to win (PA, GA, NC), could be as many as 4 of the 5 outstanding (PA, AZ, NV, + GA or NC)
Can someone further compress this down so my illiterate ass can parse it more easily?
Harris has 3 paths to victory, a 1, 2, or 3 state solution.
Trump has 2 paths, a 3 or 4 state solution.
Only 5 states are up for grabs. If Harris loses PA, she has 2 more options.
If Trump wins PA, he still needs 2 to 3 other states.
Thank you for the hard work you put into this! This is really encouraging.