This feels again a bit dismissive. My whole life I have heard “it is okay, China is years away from doing any catch up, unlikely anything happens” and then China proceeds to catch up every. Single. Time.

if China has replicated the technology, then that is fucked for ASML and any headstart they have will not feel like one in 5 years when suddenly China speeds past with cheaper and better tech.

I hope ASML won’t just sit idle and will instead double the effort into making sure the lead they have stays that way.

most recent one I can remember was “Chinese cars are years away from quality and safe cars of western countries who have a massive headstart” recently also been hearing that about memory production.

Literally every company is given a domestic advantage in their home country? Subsidies and visibility etc in home turf is not a new concept China has invented for their products.

That is also why I am pessimisic about prices ever coming down to previous level. Best case it halves and people will cheer, and it will still cost way more than before.

the prices would already have stabilized or come down if we were at the choke point, as long as inventory is moving it will stay like this. Production is shifted to data center memory and even if all the AI and data center investment stops tomorrow it will take months to a year to shift any production back to consumer RAM.