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Cake day: October 25th, 2023

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  • I don’t expect a 30% perf/clock improvement over Raptor Cove cores. I will stick with Intel’s record of delivering ~19% perf/clock with each “tock” in recent years, if we are to still follow that terminology.

    Meteor Lake is targeting 5.0-5.1 GHz fmax on mobile, which is due to how Intel 4 ended up. Historically speaking, in the FinFET era, Intel has a learning phase with process nodes - they take their time to figure out a particular node, address its shortcomings, and then come out hitting hard on the next node shrink.

    It happened with 22nm to 14nm, and again with 10nm (which was a colossal disaster), from which they salvaged Intel 7, where fmax can reach 6 GHz and more!

    Intel 4 is not the disaster that 10nm was, which bodes well for Intel 3. That, coupled with some leaks suggesting that Arrow Lake-S will have a PL2 of 177 W means that Intel 3 is likely to have a steep voltage-frequency curve, therefore I agree with the larger point that you are making.