Tuukka R

Yes, you do have to stop mindlessly repeating the propaganda.

In about three years’ time it’s been pushed back by less than half a year, from “spring of 2026” to “late summer of 2026”. And that’s the time when the Russia will run out of money. After that it will still take some time for the war to end. They won’t get more soldiers, but it takes time for the old ones to die away. But, the prognosis for the end of the Russia’s money has been pushed back by half a year. Probably during the next three years it will be pushed back by another half a year, then?

So, by 2028 we’ll say it’s time is around the change of 2026 to 2027. But whoops, that’s in the past at that point.

But yeah, at some point one has to stop mindlessly repeating propaganda. Probably when you see that the 2026 did happen, as said in 2023, you’ll do that.

KIA:MIA is a different thing, though. Neither of those two numbers includes the wounded.

For the last slightly over 3 years I’ve been reading stories about how the Russia’s economy will collapse around summer 2025 or spring 2026. Now summer 2026 seems more likely, but that’s hardly a very huge error.

It’s very unlikely that the Russia’s economy will make it to year 2027.

(And of course: a country’s economy collapsing doesn’t equal the country collapsing! But of course ut does mean the war cannot be continued, so the Russia will leave Ukraine’s territory.)

It won’t nuke Ukraine.

Firstly, in the Russia you need a triple order to launch nukes. Putin’s order is not enough. And the two other people would not want to start a nuclear war. There’s no way they’d okay a nuclear strike. And if Putin tried to convince them of that, they’d consider Putin having crossed a line that really does matter. And then there would be a headless Putin standing and a Putinless head rolling on the floor, really soon after that. Putin won’t try his luck with that. He knows he’ll just die if he does.

And secondly, it’s unlikely that any of the nukes work. It’s the same as with military trucks’ tires. Everybody assumed they’d be never used in reality, so all the maintenance resources were embezzled.

Even if the Russia was to somehow assume that some of the nukes are not duds, they’d understand that they cannot know which one is the working one. You launch 1000 missiles, of which 3 detonate, and they happen to be the ones hitting less important targets. What happens next? Heh.

What do you mean “this time”? As compared to 1998? Or 1991?

I keep repeating this, but I’ll repeat it again:

I believe at this point Putin already knows the Russia has lost, but he also understands that what comes after the war is worse for the Russia than anything this war can possibly offer.
90 000 soldiers returning from Afghanistan to USSR with 300 million inhabitants caused the absolute clusterfuck that the 1990’s in the Russia were. Those soldiers, gotten used to violence, were a horror. They are what was the base that gave birth to the internationally famously violent Russian mafia back then.

And now there aren’t going to be 90 000 soldiers returning, but 700 000. And not to a country of 300 million, but to a country of 140 million. That’s a 15-fold problem in comparison to population size compared to the end of 1980’s and the 1990’s. They’re gonna have the 1990’s again, only multiplied by 15. And because the soldiers are now much more cruel yet than the Soviets were in Afghanistan, the multiplier should actually be even higher than “mere” 15.

Putin can get the Russians to stay in the war for another half a year or year by talking NATO NATO NATO blah blah. It’s several months more time before the onset of an absolute mayhem unheard of even in the Russia. Eventually the war will end, the soldiers will return home and, well, streets in all cities will have twelve bandits per hundred metres.

I believe it would still make more sense for almost everybody in the Russia to let the mayhem begin sooner than later, because if they wait more, it will be even crazier. It’s already at the point where the only thing that can be done is for local groups to arise, and basically become independent countries, then denouncing the “heroes” and starting to actively protect their own area from the returning orcs. The Russia cannot do this, but Tatarstan can, and Republic of Sakha can. The earlier they end the war, the less people they will lose, and the more refineries and such they will have left.

Anyway: Putin knows he’s lost the war. He just wants to delay the inevitable as much as possible. If you assume this, the rest actually starts making a lot of sense.

I interpreted this as “the Russia will not be anytime in the future in a position better than its current one.”

(Also, I think the Russia will always be a bit too slow to understand how much its situation is deteriorated, in order to understand it should already fold. It might reduce its demands, but most likely never enough.)

The Russia won’t run out of military equipment anytime soon. The most important reason to destroy it is that it’s expensive to replace. And when it comes to air defence radars, also not really all that possible to replace.

What brings the war to end is economy. The Russia’s economy won’t survive very long anymore, and once the state is bankrupt, it no longer can pay the high salaries to its soldiers. Since the soldiers are in it almost exclusively for the money, that will mean there will no longer be new soldiers to replace the losses.

The Russia can of course print more money, but that will cause inflation, meaning that the soldiers’ salaries need to be raised more, which increases the need to print more money, which… :)

There are typically about 5 seriously permanently wounded to 1 dead, and in the case of the Russia, a bit over 2 wounded per 1 dead. The rate is so much lower because many of the soldiers who would end up on the list of wounded end up dying because of the lacking healthcare.

Still: If the million would be dead, there would be 2,5 million seriously permanently injured, and the Russian army would have lost altogether 3,5 million soldiers in dead and wounded. And if 3,5 million had been lost, well, things would look very different.

This proves quite clearly that the number includes also the seriously wounded, and a bit under a third of the number is actual dead.

I have had the understanding since already around summer 2022, that the Russia is completely all-in. Putin sees it so that the Russian Federation equals Putin. For him the loss of his junta means the death of the Russia. If not putting everything in play means your junta will be toppled (that is, in your eyes: Your country will be destroyed for good), then you will absolutely put everything in use. After all, what use is it that you’ve saved some tanks in storage if your country gets destroyed for good?

They might hold on to a part of their tanks for a couple of months or so, but quite soon they will be on the front as well.

I did actually used line break in between the 5 styles.

But it appeared in one line. Dunno why.

It appeared in one line because you did not end your lines with two spaces.
You write a line. Then you press the Space bar. Then you press the Space bar again.
And then you press Enter.

If you want a line break without having an empty line in between, end the line with two spaces.

This
is
actually
possible.

The text formatting system used on Piefed and Lemmy is called Markdown. You can find an excellent short Markup tutorial in the net. It’ll teach the rest.

They have the same intent, but there’s no proof that there is a plan to really actively murder all Palestinians. Also, people in Gaza now have about as much food to eat as inmates of Nazi concentration camps had in the first half of 1940’s, but the rest of the horrible torture is not being done.

So, basically, people are okay with what the Nazis did between 1932 and 1941. But from 1941 onwards, Nazis went over some line that is not acceptable.

In my opinion, Nazis were horribly evil already in 1932 and what they did back then was already absolutely condemnable, but it seems that most people in our society don’t share my view on this. You are allowed to commit a genocide using starvation and bullets, like the Nazis did until 1941, but when you start using actual gas chambers, it becomes a no-no.

Ypu don’t need to be a Cossack to kill a horse and its rider.

That’s well put, thanks!

I would say much of that also applies to China, and precisely because a country that doesn’t truly exist for its people cannot be socialist, I’d say there has never been a socialist country on this planet yet.

And then, if we choose to say that socialist countries do exist, then socialism stops meaning that the country really cares about asocial issues, and starts meaning a system where all means of production are held by the elite.

Lenin killed socialism and communism by trying to do them the bestial Russian way. (Of course that had to do with Marx’s thinking, but I still Lenin is to blame the most)
Still: if you have a dictatorship, you will inevitably veer far away from being for the people.

At the moment the countries that have come closest to the core point of socialism have been the Nordic countries, in that they’ve put the freedom and welfare of the individual in the middle, but they’ve done that that without socialism, using a strongly regulated capitalism as base instead.
…Plus, spent the last two decades trying to dismantle all that was good here, chasing the neoliberalist dream.

did you assume I wad American?

No, I didn’t.

That’s some serious waste of money… I wonder if something will actually be delivered? Except for the money being delivered to the Russia, of course.

(All that frankly, I don’t think any farm should have 13 000 pigs)

Which is of course because there are so much fewer socialist countries than capitalist countries.

As much as a I despise the penal system of USA, USA has not killed 60 million of its own inhabitants.

You are comparing grapes to grapefruits.