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Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: June 14th, 2023

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  • because all available history and information basically assured that it was

    That’s actually just not true. It’s pretty interesting, but the main reason incumbents have such a high chance of re-election is because exactly this happened with most incumbents that had a low chance already: They got cut out by the party. So there has always been natural cherry-picking that only the “good” incumbents went on to actually be the nominee again (and therefore had a disproportionally high rate of winning).

    Although I originally also thought otherwise, when looking at all the data, this was the rational & correct choice.