That group already endorsed her weeks ago

You mean with the statement…

Vice President Harris’s unwillingness to shift on unconditional weapons policy or to even make a clear campaign statement in support of upholding existing U.S. and international human rights law has made it impossible for us to endorse her https://www.politico.com/news/2024/09/19/uncommitted-no-endorsement-harris-third-party-trump-00180002

Is that the one in which they endorsed her, the one ending “impossible for us to endorse her”?

I think that not really feeling it viscerally about it is part of the problem, yeah.

But my take, for what it’s worh, is that ever since Covid people have just got a good feeling of righteousness by simply repeating the standard mainstream messaging. There was a very strong narrative that the mainstream was right and questioning it amounted to dangerous conspiracy theory (which, to be fair, it often did). So now a certain class of people (slightly left of centre, middle class urbanites) have this Pavlovian response to any questioning of the mainstream narrative, that they simply must repeat it because of that good feeling they got supporting it during Covid.

Unfortunately, even a stopped clock is right twice a day, and a couple of coincidental conspiracy-bashings doesn’t change the fact that the mainstream media are fundamentally bought and paid for by their corporate advertisers and CEOs of their hedge-fund owners on the board.

The American press’s reporting on Gaza has been nothing short of actively complicit. And that’s not even a rhetorical flourish, it’s the view of no small number of international human rights lawyers.

Courtesy of Mr Fish

I think the hypocrisy is yours.

Hamas no more “initiated” Israel’s genocide than Russia were “provoked” into invading Ukraine.

You don’t have to commit genocide to deal with an act of terrorism. You don’t have to commit genocide to deal with security concerns in your perceived sphere of influence. Neither act had justification, neither act was “initiated” by anyone but the accused governments.

So just doubling down on blind assertions? The lack of intellectual integrity is astounding.

To win, Harris does not need to take votes from Trump. She can win by taking votes from Independents and currently non-voters.

The evidence is that this group would vote for her if she changed policy on arms sales to Israel.

There is no evidence of a similar sized group of currently committed Democrats who would not vote for her if she changed policy on arms sales to Israel.

As such, there is no evidence for your claim that she needs to keep this policy to win and what evidence there is suggests the opposite.

That’s how evidence works, your theory is supposed to respond to it.

Trump’s voters want Gaza gone

No they don’t. The polls suggest they are about 50/50 on the matter. Again, evidence helps us here rather than just spewing whatever we reckon.

For Harris to come out now to support Gaza over Israel would mean two things. Those who might have been leaning away from Trump for other reasons will have cause to go ahead and vote for him.

No. Again, there’s no evidence from polling of a significant group who would do this.

Harris will lose votes from those who support Israel. Believe it or not, there are plenty of Democrats who also wouldn’t mind if Gaza would just go ahead and die, already

No. Again the actual evidence shows over 60% of Democrats want arms sales to Israel banned, and only a tiny percentage actually want them maintained (the rest undecided). The figures are even higher in Michigan, as an example of a key swing state.

Harris would be stupid to alienate Jewish voters going into the election.

On what evidence do you believe this. All the evidence provided thus far shows the opposite to be the case. The overwhelming majority of Democrats want to end arms sales to Israel. By what twisted mathematics does gaining a majority of supporters risk losing the vote?

The evidence in question, to save trawling through posts

https://cepr.net/press-release/poll-majority-of-americans-say-biden-should-halt-weapons-shipments-to-israel/

To do this Harris needs to take away voters from Trump

You’ve provided no evidence at all for this, and all the available evidence demonstrates the contrary.

Just declaring things to be the case isn’t an argument. You have to bring evidence to bear.

Harris coming out against Israel will give voters to Trump, not take them away from Trump

Again. No evidence, and all the available evidence is to the contrary.

Harris must not come out against Israel before elected or she won’t get elected

Again, all the evidence given shows the opposite.

The vast majority of Democrat voters and a smaller group of Republican voters want to stop arms sale to Israel.

A huge proportion of key voters in swing states want to stop arms sales to Israel.

Voters angry at the Democrats for not stopping arms sales to Israel are actively saying they will abstain or vote Trump.

No group, poll, or campaign has come out to claim they’ll vote Trump if the Democrats stop arms sales to Israel.

All this evidence supports the view that stopping arms sales to Israel will gain Democrats a massive number of additional votes, some of which will be from otherwise Trump voters.

You’ve provided no evidence to the contrary.

I don’t agree that the Dems need to change policy to win. Sure they could pick up some votes from the left but would sacrifice votes from other areas to achieve that.

What makes you think that, given the evidence to the contrary?

At the end of the day, those protesting will need to decide, Trump or not Trump.

Again, why are thousand of voters responsible for keeping Trump out, but not the Democrats?

Or, a slightly different question, why do you pin your hopes on these thousands and not on the Democrats? Do you think they’re more likely to change their minds? Do you think people are actually going to vote in favour of a party committed to facilitating genocide, often of their distant relations, than the Democrats are to change policy.

Don’t you think that’s an absolutely devastating indictment of democracy? That no amount of voting block pressure can actually get a party to change policy.

work from the inside on changing policy.

I don’t understand what this means. Voters vote. They don’t control party policy “from the inside”, they just vote on stuff.

If they don’t, and they help Trump get elected, things will be infinitely worse for the Palestinians.

And again, blaming the electorate for being moral, not blaming the Democrats for refusing to listen.

The clarity of your plan was not in question.

I asked a very simple question about that plan. Why do you think you can change the minds of all these people who currently are not going to vote, but you don’t think you can change the minds of the Democrat strategists?

You seem to be implying that getting Democrats to actually change policy to help them win is a lost cause, but then have this tremendous optimism toward changing the minds of thousands of people, many of whom are withholding their vote in protest against genocide. I asked why.

I did not ask “could you repeat your plan”. This is a discussion forum, it should have been obvious you might expect some scrunity of an argument put forth on it. If your intention is to ignore “naysayers” then might I suggest a discussion forum is not the best place for you to be posting. Maybe a blog, or Substack?

That’s a good point. There may a reason in that.

a vice president can’t just change policy against the wishes of the president. Nor do they regularly deviate in public opinion.

Apologies for my lack of clarity. I was using ‘Harris’ as shorthand for ‘the Harris campaign’. I mean to ask why they wouldn’t change policy… The campaign team.

I’m not arguing that she will or won’t… only that she can’t right now regardless of her actual stance.

You’re not ‘arguing’ anything at all. You’re just declaring it to be the case with so much as a scrap of evidence offered.

All the evidence provided indicates a sizeable demographic of ex-Democrat voters who would readily vote Democrat again if they changed policy on arms sales.

No polling data from anywhere indicates that keeping arms sales is the key to the swing states.

All polling data that’s been provided indicates that banning arms sales is the key to the swing states.

So what is tying Harris’s hands exactly? Spell it out.

a ideal world GOP eats itself when Trump loses again and the DNC is now effectively replacing the GOP as the conservative party.

Best answer I’ve had yet. I’m not convinced, but at least it’s a plan with an actual mechanism that isn’t contrary to reality.

The reason I’m not convinced is that it would require politics to be far less Machiavellian than it is. All the while it’s in their best interests to have Trump-the-devil as their opponent, they’ll push that narrative, true or not. I think the Democrats will be too scared to push too far to the centre for the very reasons you’ve given, they might loose support to an actual left-wing and their donors simply won’t risk that. The Democrat’s job is to suck energy from actual left-wing campaigns. To do they they need to stay left, but not too left.

And, of course, they need to convince millions of people more progressive than they are, to vote for them regardless because “the other guy…”.

But still, I respect your plan. Hope I’m wrong, and it works.

Vote the gop out to the void and turn on the DNC next.

The question I keep asking and get no reply to is, how?

How do we “turn on the DNC next”. In your scenario, we’ve just given them the unequivocal message that they can be assured of our votes no matter what their policies are, even supporting genocide doesn’t loose them votes, so long as the Republicans are worse.

So, by what mechanism do we “turn on the DNC”?

Why would they listen to a single protest, campaign, or speech knowing that their votes are secure no matter what?

I can never tell if you people are in bad faith or just legitimately so detached from a realistic view of politics that that sounds profound to you.

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I have to limp my ass and beg people door to door just to fucking vote against fascism.

Rather than beg your party to adopt the policies all the data shows would actually win then this election?

What on earth makes you think the best ‘evelenth hour’ strategy is to try and persuade thousands of people to vote, but that it’s apparently “too late” to persuade a single executive to change one policy?

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they should go back to centrists because they only win in the swing States when they do.

So the plan is to just completely igmore the evidence and repeat the same baseless and unsupported claim. You might as well be reading prophesies from the bible. I don’t think you personally have anything to fear from a Trump presidency, it sounds like you and he would get on just fine.

No more than Kamala can single handedly bring about a ceasefire in Gaza in a fortnight.

Bollocks.

“The Americans insisted and we are not in a place where we can refuse them. We rely on them for planes and military equipment. What are we supposed to do? Tell them no?” Yoav Gallant, Isreali defense minister

All of our missiles, the ammunition, the precision-guided bombs, all the airplanes and bombs, it’s all from the US,…The minute they turn off the tap, you can’t keep fighting. You have no capability … Everyone understands that we can’t fight this war without the United States. Period" Maj Gen Yitzhak Brick, Israeli general.

But by all I’ve read so far, you’ll ignore this evidence too in favour of your blind faith. It’s like talking to a Scientologist. Pointless.

No. The Democrat approval rating among Arab-Americans used to be 74%. It’s now 14%.

They have actively moved away from electoral strategies which have worked in the past. They’ve done so because their wealthy donors told them to. Against the bulk of the electorate, against previously supportive demographics, against key groups in swing states…

The Democrats are taking the very risk you’re accusing us of taking (risking losing to Trump). They’re doing so because they think they can just expect your vote. The way to stop them is to make it clear they cannot.