• 13 Posts
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Joined 8 months ago
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Cake day: August 23rd, 2025

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  • You’re welcome. CFAR listed $2,224,970 in rental income for 2024 which could be how they classify the events. I am also curious whether someone, say Salamon and a partner or partners, lives in the Bodega Bay property. Was that a conventional mortgage from a bank or did another rich friend make the loan?

    I can sympathize with helping a disabled friend afford rent and groceries for a few years, but that does not seem like effective altruism, and if Lighthaven and Bodega Bay were not cooperating they should have been separate nonprofits.





  • There is quite a contrast between the call for conscription (6.), the whining that civil servants have too much pay and respect (8.) and the praise for public life (9. We should show far more grace towards those who have subjected themselves to public life. 18. The ruthless exposure of the private lives of public figures drives far too much talent away from government service.) I think he means that earning a living wage for getting up every morning rain or shine and delivering an old man’s bank statements is BAD, but if you accept a modest position as Chief Technology Officer or Cabinet Secretary nobody should be allowed to criticize you.



  • Steelmanning is making the best possible argument for a position, whereas CEV is sorting out all the delusions and contradictions in someone’s thinking and giving them what they would want if they were wise enough to know it. Central bankers engage in extrapolated volition when they try to make the economy run in a way that will make people happy, even if what they do is not what the woman on the street wants them to do because the woman on the street has no idea how the economy works. Friends engage in extrapolated volition when they intervene in a marriage or a drinking bout and say “you are ruining your life, and we are stopping it now.” Extrapolated volition is paternalistic (“you think you want that, but I know better …”) and Yudkowsky’s CEV would demand God the Father. Yud’s original paper is available.









  • Scott Alexander published a blog post about how its unfair to call Victor Orban an autocrat but:

    I spent the first half of my writing career calling out biased left-wing experts, the flood swept all those people away, and now we’re ruled by germ-theory-denialists and Waffle-House-teleporters. Not a day goes by that I don’t want the old biased experts back. To paraphrase Cormac McCarthy, you never know what worse institutions your bad institutions have saved you from.

    Dsquareddigest responds:

    I believe the full quote is “to paraphrase Cormac McCarthy, you never know what worse institutions your bad institutions have saved you from, if you are being dumb on purpose”

    It’s in the dictionary next to Upton Sinclair’s famous line that “it is hard to get a man to understand something when he is a massive dumbass”



  • It would help to have someone familiar with the finances of the rich and famous comment. I suspect that his side of the business is completely legal, while Lightcone and CFAR have messed up or misrepresented enough things that they could get in trouble.

    Borrowing from a billionaire they are on first-name-basis with (“Jaan and SFC helped us fund the above-mentioned settlement with the FTX estate”), rather than an impersonal bureaucratic bank with rules, is very typical of our friends.



  • Yud says so much, and its often so confusing, that I think a lot of his followers don’t know his main messages. It used to be orthodox that you cannot have a two-faced message any more without each audience learning what you say to the others, but that assumed you were a good communicator aiming at a mass audience.

    Yud has strange views about legal responsibility:

    Anthropic Claude Mythos is already a state-level actor in terms of how much harm it could theoretically have done – given its demonstrated and verified ability to find critical security vulnerabilities in every operating system and browser; and how fast Mythos could’ve exploited those vulnerabilities, with ten thousand parallel threads of intelligent attack. Mythos hypothetically rampant or misused could have taken down the US power grid, say… at the end of its work, after introducing hard-to-find errors into all the bureaucracies and paperwork and doctors’ notes connected to the Internet.

    But if you release a virus and it infects people, we don’t hold the virus responsible, we hold you. If you build a car and it explodes when it gets rear-ended, we don’t blame the car, we blame you.


  • Zack Weinersmith has Ashkenazi ancestry, wrote a book with GMU economist Bryan Caplan, and seems sad all the time, which look like LW-friendly demographics, but I don’t believe he would be kind to their nonsense! I can see him knowing the online side of the movement and not recognizing that the physical community in California is the really dangerous part.

    I honestly can’t bring myself to care whether The Last Psychiatrist is a Rationalist, Post-Rationalist, or just Basilisk-curious. I could read real books, on paper, by actual experts, with fact-checking instead.