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Cake day: June 5th, 2023

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  • Sorry to hear this.

    An internet forum like Lemmy is not the best place for medical advice. Most diseases can vary significantly from person to person. Lupus comes in multiple forms. The musician Seal has a form of lupus, and he’s 61. Autoimmune disorders are very complicated, because the immune system is very complicated.

    Your doctor should be able to give you guidance and “what to expect” type information. If there is a patient portal or email you can use, be proactive and reach out to your doctor with your questions. If you’re in the USA, patients very much have to actively navigate this stuff, and advocate for themselves. Your doctor might give you a pamphlet or booklet. Read it.











  • I have so little faith in polls anymore. I know Silver and others try to patch over the shortcomings by analyzing multiple polls and running weighted probability equations on them and so on. But I always think of GIGO: garbage in, garbage out.

    And of course, probabilities are just that: probabilities. So if they say candidate X has a 75% chance to beat candidate Y, that means candidate Y still wins 25% of the time. Which is much higher than we intuit when we just look at the 75%. Anybody who’s rolled a 1d4 in D&D knows that 1 will come up more than we’d like.

    Allan Lichtman’s analysis is more interesting to me. He’s been right 9 out of 10 times. Which certainly doesn’t mean he’ll be right this time. But I think it’s cool that he ignores polls. I wonder if his methodology, while very clever, may not be up to date for 2024 with all the weird shit going on with judges, electors, etc. The “meta issues”, if you will, around his “Keys to the White House.”

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keys_to_the_White_House