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Cake day: December 4th, 2023

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  • Unless Europe and the US act together, China will control the entire production cycle for electric vehicles. China is the place where 90% of precursor materials are processed, it already has 75% of battery manufacturing, and because the batteries are so heavy, car manufacturing is likely to happen close to battery manufacturing. Most of this capacity has been developed in the last few years, and is being subsidized by the Chinese state in order to obtain a dominant position, to the extent that according to the FT half of battery production is currently sitting unused.

    There are many people who are relaxed or even positive about the Chinese government being in this position of dominance, but this is the most powerful authoritarian government in the world, run by a single party and increasingly by a single person, they have enormous economic and technological power, and they are already running probably the most sophisticated surveillance state to have ever existed, with a direct impact on their citizens daily life.

    Vehicles are already covered in cameras, they have OTA updates, they send data and images remotely, and they carry us around at speeds of 70mph or more. In twenty years they will likely be fully autonomous, with the ability to be controlled remotely. It is just not feasible or realistic to give the Chinese government, effectively the Chinese Communist Party, that kind of control of data, remote viewing, and even over life and death, within all our countries, and assume there will no consequences.