SUMMARY

The problem which I am addressing is that of refugees in Kenya. In my opinion, the measures taken to date to address the refugee crisis in Kenya appear to be relatively ineffective despite the crisis’ importance to the United States. Recognizing that the majority of refugees in Kenya come from a war-torn Somalia, I have crafted a plan that, if enacted, will hopefully enable the refugees to safely return to their home country. In short, I would recommend taking steps to end the Somali war, helping Somalia rebuild infrastructure and government as needed, and then assisting in returning refugees to Somalia.

BACKGROUND

When considering any crisis, I believe that it is important to consider the source of the problem. With that in mind, it appears that a primary source of the Kenyan refugee crisis is a war-torn Somalia, with its hundreds of thousands of displaced persons who flee to Kenya seeking solace. Therefore, I believe that in order to effectively help our friends in Kenya, the United States must start by resolving the conflict in Somalia. There are two reasons for this solution; the first and most obvious reason is that according to the UNHCR, Kenya is hosting 324,735 registered refugees from Somalia, 56% of which are under 18 years old (this comprises about 37% of total refugees- more than any other African nation has accepted.) The second reason is that one of the parties in the Somali war, Al-Shabaab, is known to be aligned with Al-Qaeda. This militia is an active contributor to the Somali war, and threatens United States interests in the region.

I would also like to point attention to the conditions in the refugee camps. Refugees who stay in these camps, to put it simply, are subject to miserable conditions. At present, Kenyan law forbids refugees from leaving the boundaries of their camps “without the permission of their Camp Officer.” While there used to be opportunities for employment in the camps, there are now few such opportunities due to the size of the camps (particularly their largest, Dadaab.) Furthermore, the aid that can be given by external parties (NGOs, the UN, etc.) is unsustainable in the long term (and often in the short term, as well.) If conditions in these camps deteriorate due to a lack of attention, further problems may arise, such as an epidemic or civil uprising.

Additionally, China – a nation with which the United States has competing interests – is attempting to gain influence in the region. For example, China has been contributing goods and resources to the Kenyans, suggesting an attempt to gain influence with that government. I believe that if we should lose our friendship with Kenya by not helping them with their refugee problem, they may well look to China for support in their time of need; if China should succeed where we fail, a Chinese-Kenyan friendship may continue even after the refugee crisis is resolved. Furthermore, while Kenya has the most developed economy in East Africa, its government is riddled with weakness and corruption- an excellent target for a nation trying to influence another. I believe that if China should gain sufficient influence in Kenya, it will only invite them and others to take our influence away from other countries, including those with more resources and larger economies than Kenya.

PROPOSED STEPS

STEP 1: END THE SOMALI WAR

This will require two separate aspects: a diplomatic aspect and a military aspect. The diplomatic aspect is straightforward- we garner national and worldwide support for intervention in the conflict through the UN and the news media. Assuming this works, we would proceed to the military aspect- sending over NATO forces and UN Peacekeepers (military experts would need to determine the exact number of troops.) These troops would solely be there to support the Somali Transitional Federal Government by removing belligerents in the Somali conflict (especially Al-Shabaab, which threatens our interests in the region.)

Of course, it would be important to not create a situation where our forces need to remain in Somalia for an indefinite period of time. Therefore, it would be very important to have a contingent of US / NATO forces available to train a Somali military to deal with armed insurrection. If possible, if we were to enter this conflict shooting, I would also like to see a neutral task force set up to ensure that war crimes and crimes against humanity are not committed in such a conflict. This task force, comprised of UN officials from bodies such as UNICEF and the UNHCR, would simply be there as a watchdog, issuing reports to news agencies and the public regarding the war on a schedule (or as critical events occur.)

STEP 2: HELP REBUILD SOMALIA

If and when the war in Somalia ends with our help, we would need to show support for peace by helping rebuild war-torn areas of the country. I would recommend focusing on rebuilding infrastructure, economy, and education, as well as watching over the Somali Transitional Federal Government. In rebuilding infrastructure, I think we would want to work with national and international agencies such as USAID and the UNDP, as well as NGOs like Habitat for Humanity. In some cases, we might consider asking the refugees themselves to help rebuild their country; refugees who elect to help would not only be paid, but also – depending on the amount of refugee help we see – may get exclusive privileges and benefits regarding their return to Somalia (such as early resettlement or guaranteed local administrative positions.) In rebuilding the Somali economy, we might send a plea for foreign aid and investment to various governments and organizations (such as the IMF and the World Bank.) The foreign aid and investments would go directly towards creating jobs and increasing spending in Somalia, which would theoretically jump-start their economy. It would also be helpful for education to be available to refugee children as soon as they come home, as that could prevent a new Al-Shabaab from emerging. I would recommend sending NGOs such as Education International to that effect.

STEP 3: RETURN REFUGEES

This final step would directly affect our friends in Kenya- it only comes last because problems would arise if the refugees went home before stability could be achieved. As the title implies, at this point we would send the refugees back to their home country. This would have to be done at a steady pace or in waves, lest negative socioeconomic repercussions arise (such as a market crash caused by high demand for resources or another civil war.) Additionally, as stated in Step Two, the refugees that help rebuild Somalia could be given special benefits and privileges, such as early resettlement. This may expedite the return process, which would finish the United States’ work sooner.

RECOMMENDATION

It is recommended that United States military leadership be consulted as soon as possible, for input on the above plan and its feasibility. Assuming military leadership approves, the President and appropriate government bodies should be consulted about the plan and putting it into action. If the plan is implemented, I would advise that the organizations and NGOs previously mentioned be alerted, to allow them time to take necessary preparations for action in the region. I seek input and approval from embassy leadership. Thank you for your consideration, and please let me know if you have any questions.

By u/ComradeCmdrPiggy, Feb 28 2017, for a scholarship from the US Institute of Peace. That I don’t think I even got. Rediscovered in an archive of papers/essays/reports while looking for even hotter takes about Ukraine from 2014/2015.