- cross-posted to:
- gaming@lemmy.zip
- cross-posted to:
- gaming@lemmy.zip
Cartel member creating the crisis let’s us know the manufactured crisis will continue until the bubble crashes.
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Our hardware crisis is their record profits, so of course they’d say that
At this point, they can say that the crisis will continue indefinitely as they keep to pushing the date.
Plus the reality is most of the data centers they are planning to build aren’t even ever going to break ground, let alone have hardware in them. Meaning all that hardware stock they have pre-contracted is moot. Plus plus the fact that they’re pre-selling hardware that they haven’t even procured raw materials for to manufacture, I can’t see even half of these “sales” to become cold hard cash in their bank accounts.
If Anthropic doesn’t do well with their IPO, it’ll all come crashing down temporarily in Q2 2027 as they run out of funds. Maybe Q3.
OpenAI is in a similar position: If they don’t have an IPO by Q2 2027, they’ll run out of money too.
I suspect that if Anthropic’s IPO doesn’t do well, the whole market around AI will have a series of weekly “corrections”, losing much of their value as China laughs all the way to the bank.
Anthropic will likely do the same trick Musk did to shift his debt onto the public- They’ll get instant inclusion into the S&P500 which requires pension funds and index funds held by everyone with a 401K to buy their stock.
SpaceX didnt get into SP500
It’ll be harder, part of how Musk pulled that grift is by tying it into spacex and pointing at actual launches and things. It will be a lot harder for anthropic to do that with only one core business.
We will see, the main problem is the long term agreements in place. All the hardware is already pre-ordered. If they break the agreements then there will be a sudden flood into the market again.
Except all the preorder they’ve been tooling for is for hbm ram that PCs can’t use. So even if the data center frenzy stops, it will be over a year before consumer ram is made in volume again.
it will be over a year before consumer ram is made in volume again.
But why would they do that? Thwyre currently generating triple more profit from consumer ram while selling half as much. They will simply leave those volumes as is and continue making the same money. Memory producers are all a cartel just like hard drive manufacturers that conveniently have a “flood” or some other disaster that stuffed up HDD supply every 2-3 years on the dot, giving them an excuse to hike prices 20%.
It won’t be a flood into the market. The hardware makers are stuck in their contracts and I’m sure they’d much rather sell those GPUs/RAM on the open market since it’s worth a lot more now than when the contract was signed.
It’ll change nothing for about six months, then we’d see some temporary price drops until non-AI business start buying them up to do local inference.
It’s an interesting conundrum…there will still be demand for compute, so the open question is: who’s buying up the datacenters and racks when the bubble bursts?
Governments.
Just looked up the prices of the ddr4 ram kit i considered to buy 1,5 years ago. Its now >500% more expensive. Even compared to last month the prices increased by >30%.
If my ram dies i’m just going to emulate PS1 games on my phone or touch some grass.
I built my dad a new PC for end-of-ten (his old one was way past its expected lifetime and long overdue to be replaced anyways).
I planned with 32 GB DDR5. But he went like “I always had 8GB and was limited as the default got to 16 GB. Now you’re planning with 32 GB when the current default is 16-32GB and I plan to use that system as long as I can. Lets jump directly to 64GB!”
So I built it, pre installed and configured everything and then a few weeks later the price shock hits. He was so blown away by the fact, that a few weeks later the RAM alone would have cost him more than what he paid for his entire system…
Yeah, I had 64 GB kit die on me this year and had to find my receipt from 2.5 years ago for a RMA, which btw if it does die, check to see what the warranty is, most have a limited lifetime warranty.
64 GB back then was 114 USD and for panic and giggles I looked at PC Part Picker, 599+ USD at the time. Absolutely crazy and stupid.
Or do they mean their going to choke supply until then…
They have the industry by the balls and know it. Even though there is competing tech, it won’t be to market for years. Honestly I expect the bubble to pop first, destroy capex, and lead to up coming tech getting shelved. Because why invest in a new path when the old one will be dirt cheap again?
