Sources:
https://www.19fortyfive.com/2025/03/the-f-47-fighter-cost-problem-no-one-wants-to-touch/
https://defencesecurityasia.com/en/iran-shahed-drones-gulf-patriot-air-defence-cost-crisis/ (assuming 2 missiles to each drone and the lowest estimate of drone costs)
At the same time? Or it’s to be scrapped afterwards?
My understanding is that the US drones are missile platforms. They launch their shit, then return to base; while the cheaper Iranian drones are kamikaze.
My reading is that the technology gives a crazy edge to quantity over quality, cheap over expensive, and the Pentagon’s asking, “How do we make these as expensive per unit as humanly possible?”
It’s fine. It makes us less effective militarily, drains the treasury faster, drives up bonds, accelerates an Argentina/Greece style debt crisis that will be the end of the empire… so it’s all good. Just wish I lived somewhere else is all.
Yeah, that’s the idea here, particularly when it comes to the kind of drones being integrated with next generation fighters. The big notion most 6th gen fighter projects are moving towards is turning the plane into a mobile command and control centre, and using drones as the weapon delivery systems. So if you’re, for example, trying to shoot down an enemy fighter using a missile, instead of putting yourself in missile range to do it you send one of your drones forward and have it launch a missile. If your drone gets splashed in return, oh well. These aren’t cheap drones that we’re talking about, they’re basically fighter planes in their own right, but most militaries would much rather replace a plane than replace a pilot. That’s why ejector seats exist.
This actually does make a lot of sense as a concept. Basically every plane becomes a whole flight or even a small squadron. This drastically cuts down on the number of pilots you need to achieve the same effect in the air, and pilots are a really, really expensive and very limited resource.
The F-47 isn’t really a counter to Shaheds. There are ways to counter Shaheds, and the US desperately needs to invest in them, but that’s not really what their 6th Gen fighter program is about, any more than it’s the purpose of GCAP or whatever madness Saab is cooking up. 6th Gen fighters are built to take out the Russian and Chinese air forces. When one F-47 can basically counter a dozen Migs, that gives you a huge advantage.
Thanks for explaining the logic! It does make sense in an A2A context. Everything is about range.
But more broadly, I wonder what “air superiority” means in 2026. Even if you shot down every plane the enemy had, they can still deny you unchallenged access to their airspace. It looks like that’s what happening in Iran. We’re dropping standoff munitions at the border and sending missiles, not dropping gravity bombs directly overhead.
Seems ground defense can now match air offense at a fraction of the cost. “The assignment”, as I see it, is to build a cheap, robust military backed by an industrial base that can pump out munitions.
I think that’s a serious misreading of what’s happening in Iran.
Air superiority still matters a lot. But the way you establish air superiority is by systematically annihilating the enemy air defenses.
Remember all those Tomahawks, ATCMS, and other PrSMs the US absolutely dumped into Iran until their supplies started to run low? Yeah, you’re supposed to use those to kill the enemy’s air defence. That’s exactly what they’re good at. Instead the US just kind of threw them at whatever, including girls schools. Then they threw their aircraft at a still largely functional air defence network and were surprised when they got shot at.
The same thing is happening in Ukraine. Russia wasted their high end cruise missiles blowing up apartment buildings and then sent poorly trained pilots to fly so low and slow that they could be hit by MANPADS.
That’s not supposed to be possible. Shoulder mounted anti air is basically useless against a jet fighter flown by a competent pilot (they’re meant for killing helicopters). The only reason Ukraine is killing Migs with them is because the Russian pilots are so bad.
Nothing has changed about the importance of air superiority. We’re just watching two object lessons in how to completely fuck up getting air superiority.
My guess is the US didn’t take out Iranian air defenses because they can’t; maybe it’s memory or imagination, but I thought they’re underground until they’re in use, or they only turn on when there’s been a visual, or there are a ton of cheaper decoys, or a combination of the three.
Damn, that’s pretty embarassing for the Russians, though.
Underground air defense systems aren’t a thing. The US is perfectly capable of identifying likely Iranian air defence sites. In theory.
They just suck at this. There’s no excuse for it. Iran isn’t pulling some crazy James Bond villain shit. The US Military is just run by total fucking clowns, because they hired an alcoholic TV personality to run the show and he chased out everyone with an ounce of competence.