The longer-term impact of the shortages would largely depend on whether Ukraine could sustain its campaign against Russia’s oil infrastructure, said Sergey Vakulenko, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Centre and an expert on Russia’s energy sector.
I dunno if you noticed, Mr expert, but Russian oil stuff has been exploding on a weekly basis for YEARS. I think they can keep it up.
He’s underestimating how long it takes to repair. Most stuff Ukraine destroyed this year will at least be broken until next year. It keeps adding up. More specialists to fix it don’t magically appear. They need to be trained. Getting the materials to the site during a fuel shortage doesn’t exactly accelerate the schedule either.
Even worse (for russia) is that most of the experts along with their equipment were contracted from europe and aren’t even allowed to enter russia anore, let alone train locals to do the job
Given 5 years they could make new experts. The Nuclear bomb was less than that - this was a major effort though.
Russia doesn’t really have people to spare from other jobs to make experts on this. In WWII the US had a major push to modernize farm production - they were lucky hybrid seeds (and things like tractors) had been developed a few years before and could be rolled out to a lot of farms that hadn’t adopted them yet, thus freeing up labor for something else. I doubt Russia has anything on the needed level to free up labor to work on this, so fixing the refineries means something else isn’t done and that thing is probably important as well.
I dunno if you noticed, Mr expert, but Russian oil stuff has been exploding on a weekly basis for YEARS. I think they can keep it up.
He’s underestimating how long it takes to repair. Most stuff Ukraine destroyed this year will at least be broken until next year. It keeps adding up. More specialists to fix it don’t magically appear. They need to be trained. Getting the materials to the site during a fuel shortage doesn’t exactly accelerate the schedule either.
Even worse (for russia) is that most of the experts along with their equipment were contracted from europe and aren’t even allowed to enter russia anore, let alone train locals to do the job
Given 5 years they could make new experts. The Nuclear bomb was less than that - this was a major effort though.
Russia doesn’t really have people to spare from other jobs to make experts on this. In WWII the US had a major push to modernize farm production - they were lucky hybrid seeds (and things like tractors) had been developed a few years before and could be rolled out to a lot of farms that hadn’t adopted them yet, thus freeing up labor for something else. I doubt Russia has anything on the needed level to free up labor to work on this, so fixing the refineries means something else isn’t done and that thing is probably important as well.
Russia doesn’t have that much strategies left. Usually it’s :
Talk, threaten and bluff into submission.
Meat waves and scorched earth
Terrorize into giving up
Wait them out
The previous strategies failed and number of drones Ukraine launches keeps increasing each night so waiting them out isn’t working out either.