in this episode I explain the numbers that require SoftBank to keep OpenAI alive past all reason: they’re spending real money to achieve imaginary private equity valuations and this was enough to make their stock go up. So they can’t stop.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zTYxEVRiCvM&list=UU9rJrMVgcXTfa8xuMnbhAEA - video
https://pivottoai.libsyn.com/20250827-softbank-needs-openai-to-stay-alive-no-matter-what - podcast
I wonder what this means for US GDP, not just the AI bubble, but the various other speculative bubbles goimg around.
How much of the US economy is real and how much is it a fake foam of stock market bubbles?
Various indicators have been in the ‘crash incoming’ for years now. And keeping in that state for longer than normal. Which is making me feel (spurred by Talebs thinking that you either have regular small crashes or irregular catastrophic big ones. which he wrote thinking we were already in the latter era) like we are in big trouble. But it doesn’t seem to be crashing. And even the authoritarian bs isnt pushing us into the crash territory.
Doesnt help that sex workers seem the be doing badly for a while now. Which is imho always a nice informal indicator.
Don’t worry, unchecked inflation and increasing housing costs will keep the GDP propped up at least for a while longer.
I mean yeah, spreadsheets rejoice, but eventually it’s going to be a problem where there is no real economy behind the numbers. How long can we keep pretending?