With a high likelihood a pandemic is unavoidable considering how widespread eg. H5N1 is in animal populations, and it’s just a question of “when” not “if”. Not too likely in the next few years but with some forecasters giving ~25% chance in the coming decade – and it’ll probably kill a lot of people. Infection fatality rates are hard to predict, but for H5N1 I’ve seen estimates ranging anywhere from 1 to 80%, with some sources saying 1 – 5% is the most probable, although eg. this paper estimates 14 – 33% and this paper estimates 30 – 80% for the current strains, which would be absolutely catastrophic. IFR should not be confused with the current case fatality rate which is around 50%. Those are just the bad cases that we know of and who end up in hospital, but the real number of infections is probably higher (possibly even in the tens of thousands or more). In any case, even a “low” IFR of 2% would mean the pandemic would be ~10x as deadly as COVID.
The only good thing about it is that reich-wingers are less likely to get a vaccine, meaning they’ll be more likely to die. Also doing idiotic shit like drinking raw milk from infected cows will mean more fatalities. Yes, it increases the chances of a mutation that’ll enable sustained human-to-human transmission, but as I said that’s probably going to happen sooner or later anyhow.
Edit: I’ll be adding sources as I dig them up from my browser history and notes. And yes, the terms “case fatality rate” and “infection fatality rate” are sometimes used confusingly by different sources, eg. some don’t use IFR but talk of the “true” or “real” CFR
I’m okay with that part, but the flu virus mutating inside them and spreading to non-idiots is what worries me.
With a high likelihood a pandemic is unavoidable considering how widespread eg. H5N1 is in animal populations, and it’s just a question of “when” not “if”. Not too likely in the next few years but with some forecasters giving ~25% chance in the coming decade – and it’ll probably kill a lot of people. Infection fatality rates are hard to predict, but for H5N1 I’ve seen estimates ranging anywhere from 1 to 80%, with some sources saying 1 – 5% is the most probable, although eg. this paper estimates 14 – 33% and this paper estimates 30 – 80% for the current strains, which would be absolutely catastrophic. IFR should not be confused with the current case fatality rate which is around 50%. Those are just the bad cases that we know of and who end up in hospital, but the real number of infections is probably higher (possibly even in the tens of thousands or more). In any case, even a “low” IFR of 2% would mean the pandemic would be ~10x as deadly as COVID.
The only good thing about it is that reich-wingers are less likely to get a vaccine, meaning they’ll be more likely to die. Also doing idiotic shit like drinking raw milk from infected cows will mean more fatalities. Yes, it increases the chances of a mutation that’ll enable sustained human-to-human transmission, but as I said that’s probably going to happen sooner or later anyhow.
Edit: I’ll be adding sources as I dig them up from my browser history and notes. And yes, the terms “case fatality rate” and “infection fatality rate” are sometimes used confusingly by different sources, eg. some don’t use IFR but talk of the “true” or “real” CFR
Well, at least there’s a vaccine.